ISPR (Ispire Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Ispire Technology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ispire Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ispire Technology Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Tobacco Products » Ispire Technology Inc (NAS:ISPR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

19700 Magellan Drive, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90502

Website

https://www.ispiretechnology.com

Ispire Technology Inc is engaged in the research and development, design, commercialization, sales, marketing, and distribution of branded e-cigarettes and cannabis vaping products. The company sells its cannabis vaping in the United States, Europe, Canada, and South Africa.

Executives

Daniel J. Machock	officer: Chief Financial Officer	19700 MAGELLAN DRIVE, LOS ANGELESC CA 90502
Christopher Robert Burch	director	19700 MAGELLAN DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90502
Jeffrey Doiron	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	3606 W MAGNOLIA BLVD, BURBANK CA 91505
John Fargis	director	2000 S BAYSHORE DR, UNIT 20, MIAMI FL 33133
Joel Paritz	director	204 MAIN STREET, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Lauren Stower	officer: Chief Impact Officer	19700 MAGELLAN DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90502
Brent Cox	director	19700 MAGELLAN DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90502
Ted Rouhani	officer: Chief Operating Officer	19700 MAGELLAN DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90502
Michael Xue Wang	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	19700 MAGELLAN DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90502
Tuanfang Liu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	19700 MAGELLAN DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90502
Jiangyan Zhu	director	19700 MAGELLAN DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90502
Pride Worldwide Investment Ltd	10 percent owner	14 JIANAN ROAD, TANGWEI FUYONG TOWN GUANGDONG PROVINCE, SHENZHEN F4 000000