NATL (NCR Atleos) Predictability Rank

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What is NCR Atleos Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NCR Atleos Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NCR Atleos Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » NCR Atleos Corp (NYSE:NATL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

864 Spring Street NW, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30308

Website

https://www.ncratleos.com

NCR Atleos Corp is financial technology company providing self-directed banking solutions to a global customer base including financial institutions, merchants, manufacturers, retailers and consumers. Self-directed banking is a rapidly growing, secular trend that allows banking customers to transact seamlessly between various channels all for the same transaction. Their comprehensive solutions enable the acceleration of self-directed banking through ATM and interactive teller machine (ITM) technology, including software, services, hardware and its proprietary Allpoint network. They manage its operations in the following segments which includes Self-Service Banking, Network, and Telecommunications & Technology.

Executives

Joseph E Reece	director	ONE VALERO WAY, BUILDING D, SUITE 200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78249
Andrew R Duvall	officer: Vice President, other: Manager	322 S MAIN STREET, GREENVILLE SC 29601
Mary Ellen Baker	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Mark W Begor	director	181 METRO DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Odilon Almeida	director	7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237
Von Gillern Jeffry H.	director	U.S. BANCORP, 800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Stuart Mackinnon	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3250 BRIARPARK, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77042
Frank A Natoli	director	5995 MAYFAIR ROAD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Michelle M Frymire	director	C/O SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL, INC., 2727 N. HARWOOD STREET, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75201
Lashawne Meriwether	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	10800 ROOSEVELT BLVD. N., ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716
Paul J. Campbell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	864 SPRING STREET, ATLANTA GA 30308
Ricardo J Nunez	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Secrtry	3100 CUMBERLAND BLVD, STE 1700, ATLANTA GA 30339
Timothy Charles Oliver	officer: See Remarks	C/O NCR CORPORATION, 864 SPRING STREET NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Ncr Corp	10 percent owner	864 SPRING STREET NW, ATLANTA GA 30309
Yi Song	officer: Vice President, other: Manager	864 SPRING STREET, ATLANTA GA 30308