Penske Automotive Group (Penske Automotive Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Penske Automotive Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Penske Automotive Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Penske Automotive Group (Penske Automotive Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Penske Automotive Group Inc (NYSE:PAG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UA9:Germany

Address

2555 Telegraph Road, Bloomfield Hills, MI, USA, 48302-0954

Website

https://www.penskeautomotive.com

Penske Automotive Group operates in about 20 U.S. states and overseas. It has about 150 U.S. light-vehicle stores including in Puerto Rico as well as 189 franchised dealerships overseas, primarily in the United Kingdom. The company is the second-largest U.S.-based dealership in terms of light-vehicle revenue and sells more than 35 brands, with over 90% of retail automotive revenue coming from luxury and import names. Other services, in addition to new and used vehicles, are parts and repair and finance and insurance. The firm's Premier Truck Group owns 44 truck dealerships selling mostly Freightliner and Western Star brands, and Penske owns 20 CarShop used-vehicle stores in the U.S. and U.K. The company is based in Michigan and was called United Auto Group before changing its name in 2007.

Executives

Sandra E. Pierce	director	2555 TELEGRAPH RD., BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Kurnick Robert H Jr	director, officer: President	2555 TELEGRAPH ROAD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302-0954
John Barr	director	2555 TELEGRAPH ROAD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302-0954
Michelle Hulgrave	officer: EVP & CFO	2555 TELEGRAPH RD., BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Shane M. Spradlin	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Sec.	2555 TELEGRAPH RD., BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Kimberly J Mcwaters	director	20410 NORTH 19TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Lisa Ann Davis	director	2555 TELEGRAPH RD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Greg C Smith	director	FORD MOTOR COMPANY, 21175 OAKWOOD BLVD, DEARBORN MI 48124
Denker Claude H Iii	officer: EVP - Human Resources	2555 TELEGRAPH RD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Roger S Penske	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chair & CEO	2555 TELEGRAPH ROAD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302-0954
H Brian Thompson	director	1950 OLD GALLOWS ROAD SUITE 201, VIENNA VA 22182
Ronald G Steinhart	director	3890 WEST NORTHWEST HIGHWAY SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75220
Michael R Eisenson	director	C/O CHARLESBANK CAPITAL PARTNERS, 600 ATLANTIC AV 28TH FL, BOSTON MA 02210
Gregory W Penske	director	3534 NORTH PECK ROAD, EL MONTE CA 91731
Wolfgang Duerheimer	director	2555 TELEGRAPH RD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302