Himalayan Bank (XNEP:HBL) Predictability Rank


XNEP:HBL Himalayan Bank Ltd XNEP:HBL
71 GF Score
Price NPR194.90
GF Value NPR216.44
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is Himalayan Bank Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Himalayan Bank Predictability Rank Related Terms

XNEP:HBL
71GF Score
Himalayan Bank Ltd XNEP:HBL
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Himalayan Bank Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Himalayan Bank (XNEP:HBL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Himalayan Bank stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of NPR194.90 is trading 10% below its estimated GF Value™ of NPR216.44. GuruFocus considers Himalayan Bank to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for XNEP:HBL:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: NPR216.44 vs. price of NPR194.90 (10% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 71/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XNEP:HBL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Himalayan Bank Business Description

Address Kamaladi, P.O. Box: 20590, Kathmandu, NPL
Himalayan Bank Ltd is a Nepal based company involved in the banking business. It includes products such as Loans and Advances, Letter of Credit, Guarantee, Remittance, Card Services, Bills purchase and discounting, Collection services, and many more. It also offers remittance services, card services, and other ancillary services like safe deposit locker services, as well as a wide range of electronic banking facilities. The products and services are offered to personal and business customers in Nepal. The company's maximum revenue is from the Loan and Advances product. Operates geographically within Nepal, with maximum revenue from Bagmati.
71GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XNEP:HBL

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

NPR194.90
Price
NPR216.44
GF Value