The Vita Coco Co (The Vita Coco Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Vita Coco Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Vita Coco Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Vita Coco Co (The Vita Coco Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » The Vita Coco Co Inc (NAS:COCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

85E:Germany 85E:Germany

Address

250 Park Avenue South, Seventh Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10003

Website

https://www.thevitacococompany.com

The Vita Coco Co Inc is a plant-based functional hydration platform. Its products include Vita Coco Coconut Water, Private Label including coconut water and oil, and Other including Runa and Ever & Ever product offerings, Vita Coco product extensions beyond coconut water, such as Vita Coco Sparkling, coconut milk products, and others. Geographical presence of the company is United States, Canada, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions.

Executives

Michael Kirban	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Ira Liran	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Rowena Ricalde	officer: Interim CFO	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Jonathan Burth	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Jane Prior	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Es Charles Van	officer: Chief Sales Officer	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Beverages Sa Verlinvest	10 percent owner	PLACE EUGENE FLAGEY 18, BRUSSELS C9 B-1050
Eric Melloul	director, 10 percent owner	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Aishetu Fatima Dozie	director	2550 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Baker Corey	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Kenneth Sadowsky	director	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Kevin Benmoussa	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Martin F Roper	director, officer: See Remarks
Axelle Henry	director, 10 percent owner	C/O THE VITA COCO COMPANY, INC., 250 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SEVENTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Rw Vc S.a.r.l.	10 percent owner	11 AVENUE DE LA PORTE-NEUVE, LUXEMBOURG N4 2227