Gouverneur Bancorp (Gouverneur Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Gouverneur Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gouverneur Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gouverneur Bancorp (Gouverneur Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Gouverneur Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:GOVB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

42 Church Street, Gouverneur, NY, USA, 13642

Website

https://www.gouverneurbank.com

Gouverneur Bancorp Inc principal activities are to accept deposits from the public and utilize those funds in loans, debt obligations which are issued by the United States government and its agencies and mortgage-backed securities. The group serves individuals and businesses in St. Lawrence, Jefferson, and Lewis Counties in New York State. The company operates through its subsidiary Gouverneur Savings and Loan Association. The bank offers commercial, non-mortgage loans to local businesses for working capital, machinery and equipment purchases, expansion and other business purposes.

Executives

Timothy J Monroe	director	42 CHURCH STREET, PO BOX 297, GOVENEUR NY 13642-0297
Henry J Leader	director	42 CHURCH STREET, PO BOX 297, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642
David Claren Mcclure	director	C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR DC 13642
Clara Pistolesi Cummings	director	C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR DC 13642
Chad Brian Soper	director	C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR DC 13642
Amy Marie Rapholz	director	C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR DC 13642
John Neil Mason	director	C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642
Kimberly Ann Adams	officer: VP and CFO	C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642
Taylor James Robbins	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642
Sadie May Hall	officer: VP & Compliance Officer	C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642
Van Vleet Charles C Jr	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O GOUVERNEUR SAVINGS LOAN ASSOC, 42 CHURCH ST. BOX 297, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642-0297
Victor Alan James	officer: VP & COO	C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642