Mobivity Holdings (Mobivity Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Mobivity Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mobivity Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mobivity Holdings (Mobivity Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Mobivity Holdings Corp (OTCPK:MFON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3133 West Frye Road, Suite 215, Chandler, AZ, USA, 85225

Website

https://www.mobivity.com

Mobivity Holdings Corp develops and operates proprietary platforms over which enterprises conduct data-driven mobile marketing campaigns. Its proprietary platforms, consisting of software available to phones, tablets, PCs, and Point of Sale ('POS") systems, allow resellers, brands and enterprises to market their products and services to consumers through text messages sent directly to consumers via mobile phones, mobile smartphone applications, and dynamically printed receipt content. The company generates revenue by charging the resellers, brands and enterprises a per-message transactional fee, through fixed or variable software licensing fees.

Executives

Thomas B Akin	director	2400 BRIDGEWAY # 200, SUITE 200, SAUSALITO CA 94965
William T. Sanchez	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O MARIADB PLC, 699 VETERANS BLVD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Skye Fossey-tomaske	officer: Interim CFO	3133 WEST FRYE ROAD, SUITE 215, CHANDLER AZ 85226
Talkot Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	2400 BRIDGEWAY, SUITE 300, SAUSALITO CA 94965
Lynn M. Tiscareno	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MOBIVITY HOLDINGS CORP.,, 55 NORTH ARIZONA PLACE #310, CHANDLER AZ 85225
Charles B Mathews	officer: CFO	1660 E. TRADEWIND CT., GILBERT AZ 85284
Dennis Ronald Becker	director, officer: CEO	8929 AERO DRIVE, SUITE E, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Van Epps William M	director	2002 PAPA JOHNS BOVD, PO BOX 999000, LLOUISVILLE KY 40269-0900
Christopher Meinerz	officer: CFO	8700 E. VISTA BONITA DRIVE, SUITE 260, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Michael K Bynum	director, officer: President	P.O. BOX 28, SPRINGER OK 73458
Philip Guarascio	director
Tim Schatz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8929 AERO DRIVE, SUITE E, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Peter S Brodsky	director	C/O HM CAPITAL PARTNERS, 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
Porter Capital Management Co	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 171, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Geri Suster	officer: Chief Operating Officer	58 W. BUFFALO ST, SUITE 200, CHANDLER AZ 85225