MVB Financial (MVB Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is MVB Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MVB Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MVB Financial (MVB Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » MVB Financial Corp (NAS:MVBF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MV6:Germany

Address

301 Virginia Avenue, Fairmont, WV, USA, 26554

Website

https://www.mvbbanking.com

MVB Financial Corp is a bank holding company. The company provides community banking, mortgage banking, insurance and wealth management services to individuals and corporate clients in the Mid-Atlantic region. The Bank offers its customers various products, such as checking accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts, money market and savings accounts, time certificates of deposit, commercial, installment, commercial real estate and residential real estate mortgage loans, debit cards, and safe deposit rental facilities. MVB has five reportable segments: CoRe banking; mortgage banking; professional services; Edge Ventures and the financial holding company. It generates a majority of its revenues from its CoRe banking segment.

Executives

Michael Louis Giorgio	officer: Chief Information Officer	240 E SHORE RD, APT 244, GREAT NECK NY 11023
W Marston Becker	director	C/O ALTERRA HOUSE, 2 FRONT STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Jan Lynn Owen	director	3050 BASTONE COURT, WEST SACRAMENTO CA 95691
Donald T Robinson	officer: Executive VP & COO	2400 CRANBERRY SQUARE, 2ND FLOOR, MORGANTOWN WV 26508
Lindsay Anne Slader	director	2709 WILLIAM ST., VANCOUVER A1 V5K 2Y7
J Christopher Pallotta	director
Anna Jane Sainsbury	director	2954 MARINE DR., WEST VANCOUVER A1 V7V 1M2
Kelly R Nelson	director	301 VIRGINIA AVENUE, FAIRMONT WV 26554-2777
Cheryl Spielman	director	5662 VINTAGE OAKS CIRCLE, DELRAY BEACH FL 33484
John Charles Marion	officer: Chief Risk Officer	303 BELMONT COURT, MULLICA HILL NJ 08062
Craig Bradley Greathouse	officer: Chief People & Culture Officer	3000 SWISS PINE WAY, SUITE 100, MORGANTOWN WV 26501
Cava James J Jr	director	301 VIRGINIA AVE, FAIRMONT WV 26554
Dean Harry E Iii	director	12120 SUNSET HILLS RD, SUITE 650, RESTON VA 26508
Daniel W Holt	director	1115 TOWN CENTER DR., FORT COLLINS CO 80524
David Alan Jones	officer: EVP/ Chief Credit & Risk Ofcr	301 VIRGINIA AVE, FAIRMONT WV 26554