Bread Financial Holdings (Bread Financial Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Bread Financial Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bread Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bread Financial Holdings (Bread Financial Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Bread Financial Holdings Inc (NYSE:BFH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

A1LL34:Brazil

Address

3075 Loyalty Circle, Columbus, OH, USA, 43219

Website

https://www.breadfinancial.com

Formed by a combination of JCPenney's credit card processing unit and The Limited's credit card bank business, Bread Financial is a provider of private label and co-branded credit cards, loyalty programs, and marketing services. The company's most financially significant unit is its credit card business that partners with retailers to jointly market Bread's credit cards to their customers. The company also retains minority interest in its recently spun-off LoyaltyOne division, which operates the largest airline miles loyalty program in Canada and offers marketing services to grocery chains in Europe and Asia.

Executives

Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc.	10 percent owner	SCOTIA PLAZA, 40 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 5100, TORONTO A6 M5H 3Y2
Roger H Ballou	director	C/O CDI CORP, 1717 ARCH ST 35TH FL, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Clair Joyce St	director	50 S LA SALLE ST, CHICAGO IL 60603
Valerie E Greer	officer: EVP, Chief Comm'l Off'r, Card	7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024
Perry S Beberman	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024
Ralph J Andretta	director, officer: President and CEO	7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024
Timothy J Theriault	director	50 LA SALLE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60675
John C Gerspach	director	C/O CORPORATE LAW DEP'T, CITIGOUP INC., 388 GREENWICH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Jonathan Bryan Campbell	officer: SVP, Chief Acctg. Officer	7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024
Laurie Anne Tucker	director	65 MARYS CREEK COVE NORTH, EADS TN 38028
Rajesh Natarajan	director	7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024
Sharen J Turney	director	THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Karin Kimbrough	director	C/O FANNIE MAE, 1100 15TH STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Charles L Horn	officer: EVP & Senior Advisor	BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC., 2001 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
Laura Santillan	officer: SVP, Chief Acctg. Officer	17655 WATERVIEW PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75252