Mastercard (Mastercard) Predictability Rank

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What is Mastercard Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mastercard Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mastercard (Mastercard) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MA:Peru MA:Mexico 1MA:Italy M4Id:UK 0R2Z:UK M4I0:Germany M4I:Germany M4I:Germany M4I:Germany M4I:Germany MA:Canada MSCD34:Brazil MAST:Austria

Address

2000 Purchase Street, Purchase, NY, USA, 10577

Website

https://www.mastercard.com

Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to over $8 trillion in transactions during 2022. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.

Executives

Ajay Bhalla	officer: President Cyber & Intelligence	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Craig Vosburg	officer: President, North America	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Edward Grunde Mclaughlin	officer: President, Operations & Tech	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Foundation Mastercard	10 percent owner	250 YONGE STREET, SUITE 2400, TORONTO A6 M5B 2L7
Richard K Davis	director	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
J. Mehra Sachin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Hai Ling	officer: Co-President, Intl Markets	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Timothy H Murphy	officer: General Counsel	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Raj Seshadri	officer: President, Data & Services	880 CARILLON PARKWAY, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716
Raghuvir Malhotra	officer: Co-President, Intl Markets	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Michael Miebach	officer: Chief Product Officer	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Linda Pistecchia Kirkpatrick	officer: President, North America	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Harit Talwar	director	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Sandra A Arkell	officer: Controller	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Candido Bracher	director	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577