Rollins (Rollins) Predictability Rank

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What is Rollins Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rollins Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rollins (Rollins) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Personal Services » Rollins Inc (NYSE:ROL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ROL:Mexico RLS:Germany RLS:Germany

Address

2170 Piedmont Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA, USA, 30324

Website

https://www.rollins.com

Rollins is a global leader in route-based pest-control services, with operations spanning North, Central and South America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa and Australia. Its portfolio of pest-control brands includes the prominent Orkin brand, market leader in the U.S., where it boasts near national coverage, and in Canada. Residential pest and termite prevention dominates the services provided by Rollins, owing to the group's ongoing focus on U.S. and Canadian markets.

Executives

Jerry Jr. Gahlhoff	director, officer: PRESIDENT & CEO	2170 PIEDMONT ROAD N.E., ATLANTA GA 30324
Paul Russell Hardin	director	2999 WILDWOOD PARKWAY SE, ATLANTA GA 30339
Gary W. Rollins Voting Trust U/a Dated September 14, 1994	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Lor Inc	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
R. Randall Rollins Voting Trust U/a Dated August 25, 1994	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Kenneth D. Krause	officer: EXEC. VP, CFO AND TREASURER	1000 CRANBERRY WOODS DRIVE, CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP PA 16066
Timothy Curtis Rollins	10 percent owner	2801 BUFORD HIGHWAY, NE, SUITE 520, ATLANTA GA 30329
Jerry W Nix	director	2999 WILDWOOD PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339
Louise S Sams	director	C/O COSTAR GROUP, INC., 1331 L STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Gregory B Morrison	director	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75225
Donald P Carson	director	C/O VSI LIQUIDATION CORP., 2170 PIEDMONT ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30324
Susan R. Bell	director	852 CASTLE FALLS DR., ATLANTA GA 30329
Patrick J. Gunning	director	1958 CALDER COURT, DUNWOODY GA 30338
John F Wilson	director, officer: President and COO	2170 PIEDMONT ROAD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30324
Thomas D Tesh	officer: Chief Admin. Officer and CIO	2170 N PIEDMONT ROAD NE, ATLANTA GA 30324