CSB Bancorp (CSB Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is CSB Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CSB Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CSB Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CSB Bancorp (CSB Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » CSB Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:CSBB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

91 North Clay Street, P.O. Box 232, Millersburg, OH, USA, 44654

Website

https://www.csb1.com

CSB Bancorp Inc is a registered financial holding company that operates through the Bank and CSB Investment Services LLC, providing a wide range of banking, trust, financial, and brokerage services to corporate, institutional, and individual customers throughout northeast Ohio. The Bank provides retail and commercial banking services to its customers, including checking and savings accounts, time deposits, IRAs, safe deposit facilities, personal loans, commercial loans, real estate mortgage loans, installment loans, night depository facilities, brokerage, and trust services. The Bank provides residential real estate, commercial real estate, and commercial, and consumer loans to customers located in Holmes, Stark, Tuscarawas, Wayne, and portions of surrounding counties in Ohio.

Executives

Eddie L Steiner	director	14950 HACKETT ROAD, APPLE CREEK OH 44606
Brett A. Gallion	officer: SVP/COO/CIO	91 N. CLAY STREET, MILLERSBURG OH 44654
Julian L Coblentz	director	91 NORTH CLAY STREET, MILLERSBURG OH 44654
Vikki G Briggs	director	91 N CLAY STREET, MILLERSBURG OH 44654
Robert K Baker	director, other: Chairman of the Board	P.O. BOX 913, KILLBUCK OH 44637
Cheryl M Kirkbride	director	91 N CLAY STREET, MILLERSBURG OH 44654
Jeffery A Robb	director	4700 JAEGER DR, THORNVILLE OH 43076
Daniel J Miller	director	P.O. BOX 143, WALNUT CREEK OH 44687
John R Waltman	director	24 HILLSIDE DRIVE, MILLERSBURG OH 44654
Margaret L Conn	officer: Corporate Secretary	105 MARK AVENUE, KILLBUCK OH 44637
Steven R Bailey	officer: SVP/COO/CIO	91 NORTH CLAY STREET, MILLERSBURG OH 44654
J Thomas Lang	director	7109 STATE ROUTE 514, BIG PRAIRIE OH 44611
Manning William R Jr	officer: SVP/COO/CIO	91 NORTH CLAY STREET, MILLERSBURG OH 44654
Paula J Meiler	officer: Senior Vice President	30186 MOUNTZ RD, SALEM OH 44460
A Lee Miller	officer: Senior Vice President	5046 TOWNSHIP ROAD 376, MILLERSBURG OH 44654

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