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Cisco Systems (NAS:CSCO) Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $38.95 (As of Jan23)
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As of Jan23, Cisco Systems's earnings power value is $38.95. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -29.37

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Cisco Systems Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Cisco Systems's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Cisco Systems Annual Data
Trend Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20 Jul21 Jul22
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 24.59 26.62 29.39 29.25 29.95

Cisco Systems Quarterly Data
Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 29.13 29.83 29.95 30.66 38.95

Competitive Comparison

For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Cisco Systems's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Cisco Systems Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Cisco Systems's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cisco Systems's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Earnings Power Value (EPV)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



Cisco Systems Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Cisco Systems's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 51,022
DDA 1,891
Operating Margin % 27.45
SGA * 25% 2,839
Tax Rate % 18.36
Maintenance Capex 684
Cash and Cash Equivalents 22,061
Short-Term Debt 1,250
Long-Term Debt 7,637
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 4,116

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 27.45%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $51,022 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 27.45%, Average Adjusted SGA = 2,839,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 51,022 * 27.45% +2,839 = $16847.034788 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 18.36%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $16847.034788 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 16847.034788 * ( 1 - 18.36% ) = $13753.498025054 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 1,891 * 0.5 * 18.36% = $173.6541625 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 13753.498025054 + 173.6541625 = $13927.152187554 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Cisco Systems's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $684 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Cisco Systems's current cash and cash equivalent = $22,061 Mil.
Cisco Systems's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 7,637 + 1,250 = $8887 Mil.
Cisco Systems's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 4,116 Mil.

Cisco Systems's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jan23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 13927.152187554 - 684)/ 9%+22,061-8887 )/4,116
=38.95

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 38.949722728521-50.39 )/38.949722728521
= -29.37%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Cisco Systems  (NAS:CSCO) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Cisco Systems Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cisco Systems's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Cisco Systems (NAS:CSCO) Business Description

Cisco Systems logo
Industry
Address
170 West Tasman Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134-1706
Cisco Systems is the largest provider of networking equipment in the world and one of the largest software companies in the world. Its largest businesses are selling networking hardware and software (where it has leading market shares) and cybersecurity software like firewalls. It also has collaboration products, like its Webex suite, and observability tools. It primarily outsources its manufacturing to third parties and has a large sales and marketing staff—25,000 strong across 90 countries. Overall, Cisco employees 80,000 employees and sells its products globally.
Executives
Sarah Rae Murphy director C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Jeffery S. Sharritts officer: EVP & Chief Cust & Prtnr Offcr 1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, STE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Deborah L Stahlkopf officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Marianna Tessel director C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
John D Harris director C/O FLEXTRONICS INTERNATIONAL USA, INC., 6201 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Richard Scott Herren officer: EVP and CFO 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Wesley G Bush director 333 MAPLE AVENUE EAST, #3080, VIENNA VA 22180
Lisa T Su director C/O ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC., 2485 AUGUSTINE DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Carol B Tome director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Geraldine Elliott officer: EVP, Chief Sales & Mktg Offcr 1194 N. MATHILDA AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Maria Martinez officer: EVP, Chief Customer Exp Offcr THE LANDMARK @ 1 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Mark Garrett director 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Irving Tan officer: SVP, Operations and Digital 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
David Goeckeler officer: EVP, Networking and Security C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Brent L Saunders director 2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, C/O SCHERING PLOUGH CORP, KENILWORTH NJ 07033

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