Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, OceanFirst Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
OceanFirst Financial (NAS:OCFC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
OceanFirst Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
OCFC vs HOPE, BFC, OBK: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, OceanFirst Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
OceanFirst Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, OceanFirst Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where OceanFirst Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
OceanFirst Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.13
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.08% mean?
OceanFirst Financial (OCFC) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.08% as of Aug. 21, 2026.
Is OceanFirst Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
OceanFirst Financial's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%. Overall, OceanFirst Financial has a GF Score™ of 75/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does OceanFirst Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to HOPE and BFC?
OceanFirst Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.08% can be compared against companies in the Banks industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Banks company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Banks industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. OceanFirst Financial's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is OceanFirst Financial stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, OceanFirst Financial (OCFC) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $19.85, compared to a current price of $19.06 — trading 4% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%. OceanFirst Financial's overall GF Score™ is 75/100 with 9 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For OceanFirst Financial (OCFC), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08% as of Aug. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is OceanFirst Financial (OCFC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, OceanFirst Financial stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $19.06 is trading 4% below its estimated GF Value™ of $19.85.
GuruFocus considers OceanFirst Financial to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for OCFC:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.08%
GF Value™: $19.85 vs. price of $19.06 (4% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the OCFC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
OceanFirst Financial Corp is engaged in the banking sector of the United States. It conducts the business of attracting retail and business deposits and investing them in loans, consisting of single-family, owner-occupied residential mortgage loans and commercial real estate loans. The company's sole segment deals with the delivery of loan and deposit products to customers. The bank's revenues are derived principally from interest on its loans, and to a lesser extent, interest on its investment and mortgage-backed securities. The rest of its income is dependent on bank card services and wealth management products and services.
75GF Score
Get the complete analysis for OCFC
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
OCFC has been successfully added to your 
