Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Bin Dawood Holding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Bin Dawood Holding (SAU:4161) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Bin Dawood Holding Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
SAU:4161 vs KR, SFM, ACI: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Grocery Stores subindustry, Bin Dawood Holding's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Bin Dawood Holding Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Retail - Defensive Industry
For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Bin Dawood Holding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Bin Dawood Holding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Bin Dawood Holding Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.72
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Bin Dawood Holding (SAU:4161) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jun. 28, 2026.
Is Bin Dawood Holding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Bin Dawood Holding's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Bin Dawood Holding has a GF Score™ of 81/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Bin Dawood Holding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to KR and SFM?
Bin Dawood Holding's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Retail - Defensive industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Retail - Defensive company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Retail - Defensive industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Bin Dawood Holding's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Bin Dawood Holding stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Bin Dawood Holding (SAU:4161) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ﷼7.56, compared to a current price of ﷼4.91 — trading 35.1% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Bin Dawood Holding's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Bin Dawood Holding (SAU:4161), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 28, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Bin Dawood Holding (SAU:4161) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Bin Dawood Holding stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of ﷼4.91 is trading 35.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of ﷼7.56.
GuruFocus considers Bin Dawood Holding to be Significantly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for SAU:4161:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
GF Value™: ﷼7.56 vs. price of ﷼4.91 (35.1% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SAU:4161 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Bin Dawood Holding is the grocery retail operator of hypermarkets and supermarkets in Saudi Arabia. The company's Stores comprise trading of FMCG, fresh Food Products, and Non-Food Products, including household consumable items, as well as the ownership and management of in-store bakeries. The company also engaged in the retail trading of foodstuff and household items, operating bakeries and restaurants, pharmacies, providing information technology and communication services, providing delivery, storage, and transportation services, acquiring and managing investments, and providing market influencing and digital marketing services. The company operates its business under the brands of BinDawood, Danube, BinDawood Dash, Danube Dash, IACo, and Ykone.
81GF Score
Get the complete analysis for SAU:4161
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
SAU:4161 has been successfully added to your 