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UMB Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.04% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, UMB Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, UMB Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

UMB Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, UMB Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where UMB Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



UMB Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.74

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Cash and cash equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


UMB Financial  (NAS:UMBF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


UMB Financial Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of UMB Financial's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


UMB Financial Business Description

UMB Financial logo
Industry
Financial Services » Banks NAICS : 522110 SIC : 6029
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1010 Grand Boulevard, Kansas City, MO, USA, 64106
UMB Financial Corp, or UMBF, is a financial services holding company offering a suite of banking, asset management, and health spending solutions. Its customer base includes commercial, institutional, and personal customers across the United States. The company's banking subsidiaries own and operate banking and wealth-management centres mostly throughout the Midwest and Southwest regions of the U.S. Subsidiaries of the holding company and its lead bank, UMB Bank, include mutual fund and alternative investment services groups, single-purpose companies that deal with brokerage services and insurance, and a registered investment advisory. The bank's revenue is split nearly evenly between interest income and noninterest income.
Executives
Kemper J Mariner director, officer: Chairman and CEO 1010 GRAND BLVD. KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Peterman Tamara director 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Graves Greg M director 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Davidson Janine director 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Shankar Ram officer: Chief Financial Officer 1010 GRAND BLVD. KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Rine James D officer: President UMB Bank, n.a. 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
King Stacy H officer: Chief Risk Officer 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Cornelius James officer: Executive Vice President 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Johnson Shannon Andresen officer: Chief Administrative Officer 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Macke Kevin M officer: Executive Vice President 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Terry Thomas S officer: Chief Credit Officer 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Pauls John officer: EVP & General Counsel 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Wendel Abigail M officer: President - Consumer Banking 1010 GRAND BOULEVARD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Newton Nikki Farentino officer: President, Private Wealth Mgmt 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106
Beaird Robert Brian officer: Chief Human Resource Officer 1010 GRAND BLVD KANSAS CITY MO 64106

UMB Financial Headlines

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