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The Simply Good Foods CoSMPL -5.99%59 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.20 as of Sep. 08, 2026. GuruFocus rates SMPL with a GF Score™ of 59/100 and a GF Value™ of $39.32 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,325 Consumer Packaged Goods companies, The Simply Good Foods Co ranks better than 87.77% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for The Simply Good Foods Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
SMPL'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.36 Med: 1.28 Max: 2.21
Current: 0.36
During the past 9 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of The Simply Good Foods Co was 2.21. The lowest was 0.36. And the median was 1.28.
SMPL's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 87.77% of 1325
companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 1.03
vs SMPL: 0.36
The Simply Good Foods Co (NAS:SMPL) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
The Simply Good Foods Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
10.76
/
30.200994806245
=
0.36
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
The Simply Good Foods Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
The Simply Good Foods Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for The Simply Good Foods Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
The Simply Good Foods Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
SMPL vs JBSS, WEST, MAMA: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Packaged Foods subindustry, The Simply Good Foods Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
The Simply Good Foods Co Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, The Simply Good Foods Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where The Simply Good Foods Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
The Simply Good Foods Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $30.20 mean?
The Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $30.20 as of Sep. 08, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on The Simply Good Foods Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, The Simply Good Foods Co ranks #162 out of 1325 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, placing it in the top 12.2%.
Is The Simply Good Foods Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
The Simply Good Foods Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.20. The Consumer Packaged Goods industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.03. The Simply Good Foods Co's value of $30.20 is 2832% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, The Simply Good Foods Co ranks #162 out of 1325 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, The Simply Good Foods Co has a GF Score™ of 59/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does The Simply Good Foods Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to JBSS and WEST?
According to the Consumer Packaged Goods industry distribution chart, The Simply Good Foods Co ranks #162 out of 1325 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places The Simply Good Foods Co in the top 12% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.03. The Simply Good Foods Co's value of $30.20 is 2832% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Consumer Packaged Goods companies is 1.03, based on 1,325 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. The Simply Good Foods Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $30.20 is 2832% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on The Simply Good Foods Co and its competitors. For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.03 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. The Simply Good Foods Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.20. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is The Simply Good Foods Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $39.32, compared to a current price of $10.76 — trading 72.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.20 and 2832% above the Consumer Packaged Goods industry median of 1.03. The Simply Good Foods Co's overall GF Score™ is 59/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For The Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.20 as of Sep. 08, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is The Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The Simply Good Foods Co stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $10.76 is trading 72.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of $39.32.
GuruFocus considers The Simply Good Foods Co to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for SMPL:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $30.20
GF Value™: $39.32 vs. price of $10.76 (72.6% below fair value)
Industry Position: 2832% above the Consumer Packaged Goods median (#162 of 1325)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SMPL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
The Simply Good Foods Co Company is a consumer packaged food and beverage company that develops, markets, and sells protein bars, ready-to-drink protein shakes, sweet and salty snacks, and confectionery products under the Quest, Atkins, and OWYN brands. The products target consumers seeking protein-rich foods with limited sugars and carbohydrates, with OWYN offering plant-based and allergen-tested options. The company distributes mainly in North America through grocery, club, mass merchandise, e-commerce, and specialty channels. It operates two segments: Quest and Atkins, and OWYN. The company operates in North America and internationally, with the majority of revenue coming from North America.
59GF Score
Get the complete analysis for SMPL
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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