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First Horizon (NYSE:FHN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $19.10 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-01-31), First Horizon's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $19.10.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

First Horizon's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for First Horizon is -29.48%.

The historical rank and industry rank for First Horizon's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of First Horizon was 1.60. The lowest was 0.44. And the median was 0.68.


First Horizon Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for First Horizon's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

First Horizon Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
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First Horizon Quarterly Data
Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

First Horizon Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $1.530.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

First Horizon's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.530*12.485
=19.10

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(19.1-24.73)/19.1
=-29.48 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


First Horizon  (NYSE:FHN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


First Horizon Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of First Horizon's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


First Horizon (NYSE:FHN) Business Description

First Horizon logo
Industry
Address
165 Madison Avenue, Memphis, TN, USA, 38103
First Horizon Corp is the parent company of First Tennessee Bank, a prominent regional bank with about 200 branches around Tennessee. The regional bank is responsible for roughly 65% of its revenue, while capital markets make a 25% contribution. The remainder is split between the firm's non-strategic (wind-down) and corporate operations. First Horizon concentrates on offering a variety of banking products mainly in its home state, where it has the second- largest deposit franchise with a 13% deposit market share.
Executives
Hope Dmuchowski officer: Sr. EVP & CFO 165 MADISON AVE, MEMPHIS TN 38103
John N Casbon director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Tammy Locascio officer: Sr. EVP, Chief HR Officer 165 MADISON AVE, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Kemp Sr James Michael director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Ricky E Maples director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Terry Lawson Akins officer: Sr. EVP, Chief Risk Officer 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Elizabeth A Ardoin officer: SEVP, Chief Communications Ofc 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Rosa Sugranes director 2975 N.W. 77TH AVE, DORAL FL 33132
Anthony J Restel officer: SEVP Chief Operating Officer 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Shea E Stewart Iii director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
William H Fenstermaker director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Daryl G Byrd director, officer: Executive Chairman of Board 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Barton Harry V Jr director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Michael J Brown officer: President - Regional Banking 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Wendy P Davidson director 2210 WEST OAKLAWN DRIVE, SPRINGDALE AR 72762

First Horizon (NYSE:FHN) Headlines

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