Southern Missouri Bancorp (Southern Missouri Bancorp) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $159.59 (As of Apr. 28, 2024)

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What is Southern Missouri Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-28), Southern Missouri Bancorp's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $159.59.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Southern Missouri Bancorp's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Southern Missouri Bancorp is 74.35%.

The industry rank for Southern Missouri Bancorp's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

SMBC's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
65.35% of 482 companies
in the Banks industry
Industry Median: 0.44 vs SMBC: 0.26

Southern Missouri Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Southern Missouri Bancorp's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Southern Missouri Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Southern Missouri Bancorp Annual Data

Trend

Jun14

Jun15

Jun16

Jun17

Jun18

Jun19

Jun20

Jun21

Jun22

Jun23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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72.96

127.60

179.40

263.71

190.22

Southern Missouri Bancorp Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															239.18	205.56	190.22	185.50	175.73

Competitive Comparison of Southern Missouri Bancorp's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Southern Missouri Bancorp's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Southern Missouri Bancorp's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Southern Missouri Bancorp's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Southern Missouri Bancorp's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Southern Missouri Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Southern Missouri Bancorp's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 21.60%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $5.107.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Southern Missouri Bancorp's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

5.107

31.2501

159.59

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(159.59	-	40.94)	/	159.59
	=	74.35 %

Southern Missouri Bancorp (NAS:SMBC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Southern Missouri Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Southern Missouri Bancorp (Southern Missouri Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc (NAS:SMBC) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2991 Oak Grove Road, Poplar Bluff, MO, USA, 63901

Website

https://www.bankwithsouthern.com

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc is a us-based holding company for Southern Missouri Savings Bank. The principal business of the bank consists of attracting retail deposits from the general public and using such deposits along with wholesale funding from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines, and to a lesser extent, brokered deposits, to invest in one- to four-family residential mortgage loans, mortgage loans secured by commercial real estate, commercial non-mortgage business loans, and consumer loans. It is engaged in providing the range of banking and financial services to individuals and corporate customers in its market areas. The company derives revenue principally from interest earned on loans, debt securities, bank card interchange fees, loan late charges and another fee income.

Executives

Stefan Chkautovich	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2991 OAK GROVE RD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 639012
Dennis C Robison	director	C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901
Matthew T Funke	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901
Daniel Lee Jones	director	2991 OAK GROVE RD., POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901
Brett Dorton	officer: EVP, Chief Strategies Officer	C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP, INC., 2991 OAK GROVE ROAD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901
Greg A Steffens	director, officer: President	C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901-7330
William E Young	director	2991 OAK GROVE RD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901
David L Mcclain	director	2991 OAK GROVE RD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901
Lance K Greunke	officer: Executive Vice President	2991 OAK GROVE ROAD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901
Charles R Love	director	1469 CO. RD. 468, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901
Sammy A Schalk	director	C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901-7330
Martin Weishaar	officer: Chief Legal Officer	SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP, INC., 2991 OAK GROVE ROAD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901
Douglas Bagby	director	C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP INC, 531 VINE STREET, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901-7330
Mark E Hecker	officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer	16 WEST FRANKLIN STREET, LIBERTY MO 64068
Richard Windes	officer: Chief Lending Officer	C/O SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP, INC., 2991 OAK GROVE ROAD, POPLAR BLUFF MO 63901