COG Financial Services (ASX:COG) Beneish M-Score: -2.52 (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


ASX:COG COG Financial Services Ltd ASX:COG
36 GF Score
Price A$1.43
GF Value A$0.76
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is COG Financial Services Beneish M-Score?

COG Financial Services ASX:COG +1.42% 36 Beneish M-Score is -2.52 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASX:COG with a GF Score™ of 36/100 and a GF Value™ of A$0.76 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 702 Capital Markets companies, COG Financial Services ranks better than 65.24% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.52 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for COG Financial Services's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ASX:COG' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.16   Med: -3.07   Max: -1.95
Current: -2.52

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of COG Financial Services was -1.95. The lowest was -4.16. And the median was -3.07.

ASX:COG
36GF Score
COG Financial Services Ltd ASX:COG
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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COG Financial Services Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of COG Financial Services for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.522+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 0.9931+0.892 * 0.6335+0.115 * 1.1326
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.7952+4.679 * -0.043939-0.327 * 0.5733
=-2.52

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun25) TTM:Last Year (Jun24) TTM:
Total Receivables was A$22.9 Mil.
Revenue was A$199.9 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$199.9 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was A$694.8 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$23.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$17.8 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$140.5 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$141.9 Mil.
Net Income was A$18.8 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was A$49.3 Mil.
 Total Receivables was A$23.8 Mil.
Revenue was A$315.6 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$315.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was A$687.1 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$18.6 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$17.8 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$123.6 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$244.7 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(22.902 / 199.895) / (23.753 / 315.552)
=0.11457 / 0.075274
=1.522

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(315.552 / 315.552) / (199.895 / 199.895)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 23.451) / 694.801) / (1 - (0 + 18.586) / 687.118)
=0.966248 / 0.972951
=0.9931

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=199.895 / 315.552
=0.6335

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(17.8 / (17.8 + 18.586)) / (17.831 / (17.831 + 23.451))
=0.489199 / 0.431932
=1.1326

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(140.548 / 199.895) / (123.587 / 315.552)
=0.703109 / 0.391653
=1.7952

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((141.878 + 0) / 694.801) / ((244.742 + 0) / 687.118)
=0.204199 / 0.356186
=0.5733

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(18.775 - 0 - 49.304) / 694.801
=-0.043939

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

COG Financial Services has a M-score of -2.52 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.52 mean?
COG Financial Services (ASX:COG) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.52 as of Jun. 24, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on COG Financial Services and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, COG Financial Services ranks #244 out of 702 companies in the Capital Markets industry, placing it in the top 34.8%.
Is COG Financial Services' Beneish M-Score too high?
COG Financial Services' current Beneish M-Score is -2.52. Based on the distribution chart, COG Financial Services ranks #244 out of 702 companies in the Capital Markets industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, COG Financial Services has a GF Score™ of 36/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does COG Financial Services' Beneish M-Score compare to MS and GS?
According to the Capital Markets industry distribution chart, COG Financial Services ranks #244 out of 702 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts COG Financial Services in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Capital Markets company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Capital Markets industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on COG Financial Services and its competitors. COG Financial Services's current Beneish M-Score is -2.52. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is COG Financial Services stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, COG Financial Services (ASX:COG) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$0.76, compared to a current price of A$1.43 — trading 88.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.52. COG Financial Services' overall GF Score™ is 36/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For COG Financial Services (ASX:COG), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.52 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is COG Financial Services (ASX:COG) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, COG Financial Services stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of A$1.43 is trading 88.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$0.76. GuruFocus considers COG Financial Services to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ASX:COG:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.52
  • GF Value™: A$0.76 vs. price of A$1.43 (88.2% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 36/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:COG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

COG Financial Services Business Description

Address 72 Archer Street, Level 1, Chatswood, Sydney, NSW, AUS, 2067
COG Financial Services Ltd is engaged in the equipment finance sector. The investment objective of the company is to grow its earnings per share by investing in complementary entities and growing existing businesses that specialise in equipment finance broking, finance aggregation, and commercial leases for essential business assets. Its segments include Finance Broking and Aggregation, which is the key revenue driver, focused on the aggregation of broker volumes to maximize profitability through scale and finance broking focused on products finance and asset types; Novated Leasing; Asset Management and Lending activities, and others.
36GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ASX:COG

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$1.43
Price
A$0.76
GF Value