Provident Financial Services (FRA:PQ3) Beneish M-Score: -2.44 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


FRA:PQ3 Provident Financial Services Inc FRA:PQ3
54 GF Score
Price €20.40
GF Value €15.93
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 8 Warning Signs
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What is Provident Financial Services Beneish M-Score?

Provident Financial Services FRA:PQ3 +0.99% 54 Beneish M-Score is -2.44 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates FRA:PQ3 with a GF Score™ of 54/100 and a GF Value™ of €15.93 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,397 Banks companies, Provident Financial Services ranks better than 58.27% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.44 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Provident Financial Services's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:PQ3' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.6   Med: -2.42   Max: -1.7
Current: -2.44

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Provident Financial Services was -1.70. The lowest was -3.60. And the median was -2.42.

FRA:PQ3
54GF Score
Provident Financial Services Inc FRA:PQ3
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Provident Financial Services Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Provident Financial Services for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9558+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0004+0.892 * 1.0418+0.115 * 0.9919
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9405+4.679 * -0.005234-0.327 * 1.025
=-2.51

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was €84.5 Mil.
Revenue was 194.795 + 192.767 + 188.932 + 185.685 = €762.2 Mil.
Gross Profit was 194.795 + 192.767 + 188.932 + 185.685 = €762.2 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was €21,799.5 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €95.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €55.3 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €236.1 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €2,418.3 Mil.
Net Income was 68.696 + 71.25 + 61.105 + 62.408 = €263.5 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = €0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 73.224 + 58.882 + 83.525 + 161.927 = €377.6 Mil.
 Total Receivables was €84.9 Mil.
Revenue was 193.101 + 196.647 + 189.711 + 152.153 = €731.6 Mil.
Gross Profit was 193.101 + 196.647 + 189.711 + 152.153 = €731.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was €22,407.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €106.8 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €61.0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €241.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €2,425.1 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(84.533 / 762.179) / (84.893 / 731.612)
=0.11091 / 0.116036
=0.9558

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(731.612 / 731.612) / (762.179 / 762.179)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 95.458) / 21799.462) / (1 - (0 + 106.767) / 22407.902)
=0.995621 / 0.995235
=1.0004

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=762.179 / 731.612
=1.0418

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(61.03 / (61.03 + 106.767)) / (55.266 / (55.266 + 95.458))
=0.363713 / 0.36667
=0.9919

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(236.14 / 762.179) / (240.999 / 731.612)
=0.309822 / 0.329408
=0.9405

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2418.251 + 0) / 21799.462) / ((2425.119 + 0) / 22407.902)
=0.110932 / 0.108226
=1.025

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(263.459 - 0 - 377.558) / 21799.462
=-0.005234

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Provident Financial Services has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.44 mean?
Provident Financial Services (FRA:PQ3) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.44 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Provident Financial Services and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Provident Financial Services ranks #583 out of 1397 companies in the Banks industry, placing it in the top 41.7%.
Is Provident Financial Services' Beneish M-Score too high?
Provident Financial Services' current Beneish M-Score is -2.44. Based on the distribution chart, Provident Financial Services ranks #583 out of 1397 companies in the Banks industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Provident Financial Services has a GF Score™ of 54/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Provident Financial Services' Beneish M-Score compare to SBCF and BANC?
According to the Banks industry distribution chart, Provident Financial Services ranks #583 out of 1397 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Provident Financial Services in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Banks company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Banks industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Provident Financial Services and its competitors. Provident Financial Services's current Beneish M-Score is -2.44. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Provident Financial Services stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Provident Financial Services (FRA:PQ3) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €15.93, compared to a current price of €20.40 — trading 28.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.44. Provident Financial Services' overall GF Score™ is 54/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Provident Financial Services (FRA:PQ3), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.44 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Provident Financial Services (FRA:PQ3) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Provident Financial Services stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of €20.40 is trading 28.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of €15.93. GuruFocus considers Provident Financial Services to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for FRA:PQ3:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.44
  • GF Value™: €15.93 vs. price of €20.40 (28.1% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 54/100 with 8 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:PQ3 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Provident Financial Services Business Description

Other Exchanges PFS:USA
Address 239 Washington Street, Jersey, NJ, USA, 07302
Provident Financial Services Inc is the holding company for The Provident Bank, a community-oriented bank. The company's operations are solely in the financial services industry and include providing traditional banking and other financial services to its customers. The company operates in the geographical regions of northern and central New Jersey, Queens and Nassau Counties in New York and eastern Pennsylvania. The company has a single reporting segment for financial reporting purposes. The majority of the revenue-generating activities that are components of non-interest income. These revenue streams can generally be classified into three broad categories: wealth management revenue, insurance agency income, and banking service charges and other fees.
54GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FRA:PQ3

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€20.40
Price
€15.93
GF Value