BHB (Bar Harbor Bankshares) Predictability Rank

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What is Bar Harbor Bankshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bar Harbor Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bar Harbor Bankshares Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Bar Harbor Bankshares Inc (AMEX:BHB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

42K:Germany

Address

82 Main Street, P.O. Box 400, Bar Harbor, ME, USA, 04609-0400

Website

https://www.barharbor.bank

Bar Harbor Bankshares Inc is a bank holding company along with its subsidiaries that offers a full range of financial services products, brokerage services through third-party brokerage arrangements and also trust and investment management services to individuals, businesses, non-profit organizations, and municipalities. The company has following reportable segments such as Commercial construction, Commercial real estate owner occupied and non-owner occupied, Tax Exempt, Commercial and industrial loans, Residential real estate, Home equity and Consumer other. Its products and services consist of checking, deposits, cards, mobile banking, online services, loans, merchant services, trust, and fiduciary services, investment planning, education funding, individual retirement planning..

Executives

Curtis C Simard	director, officer: CEO - BHBT	P O BOX 400, 82 MAIN STREET, BAR HARBOR ME 04609
Matthew L Caras	director	82 MAIN STREET, PO BOX 400, BAR HARBOR ME 04609
David M Colter	director	PO BOX 400, 82 MAIN STREET, BAR HARBOR ME 04608
Kenneth Eugene Smith	director	C/O BAR HARBOR BANKING & TRUST COMPANY, PO BOX 400, BAR HARBOR ME 04609
Scott G Toothaker	director	302 SURRY RD, ELLSWORTH ME 04605
David B Woodside	director
Brian D Shaw	director	11 CLEFTSTONE ROAD, BAR HARBOR ME 04609
Debra Becton Miller	director	PO BOX 231, LONDONDERRY NH 03053
Brendan Ohalloran	director	82 MAIN STREET, P.O. BOX 400, BAR HARBOR ME 04609
Daina H Hill	director	PO BOX 400, 82 MAIN STREET, BAR HARBOR ME 04609
Jason Paul Edgar	officer: President of BHTS & CTC	27 MEDITATION LANE, ATKINSON NH 03811
Stephen R Theroux	director	C/O NEW HAMPSHIRE THRIFT BANCHARES INC, 9 MAIN STREET, P.O. BOX 9, NEWPORT NH 03773
Stephen W Ensign	director	C/O NEW HAMPSHIRE THRIFT BANCHARES INC, 9 MAIN STREET, P.O. BOX 9, NEWPORT NH 03773
Martha T Dudman	director	82 MAIN STREET PO BOX 400, BAR HARBOR ME 04609
Lauri E Fernald	director	1140 MAIN STREET, MOUNT DESERT ME 04660