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CBKM (Consumers Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is Consumers Bancorp Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Consumers Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Consumers Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Consumers Bancorp Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Consumers Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:CBKM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SSBI FBSI FFBW JUVF NTBP TCBC USMT PTBS CPBI UWHR NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 SGX:D05 XPAR:BNP MIL:ISP MIL:UCG NSE:SBIN TSE:8411
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
614 East Lincoln Way, P.O. Box 256, Minerva, OH, USA, 44657
Website
https://www.consumers.bank
Consumers Bancorp Inc is engaged in the financial services sector. It is a bank holding company for Consumers National Bank and performs commercial and retail banking tasks. Through the bank, its business involves offering commercial and consumer loan and deposit products, as well as mortgage, financial planning, and investment services to individuals, farmers, and small and medium-sized businesses. It also invests in securities consisting predominantly of obligations of U.S. government-sponsored agencies, municipal obligations, and mortgage-backed securities issued by U.S. government-sponsored entities.
Executives
John W Parkinson director 199 ORLANDO MANOR, WINTERSVILLE OH 43953
Lober Ralph J Ii director, officer: CEO/President 9084 EMERALD ISLE ST NW, CANAL FULTON OH 44614
Bradley Goris director 3075 SOUTH UNION AVE, ALLIANCE OH 44601-5362
Shawna L'italien director 617 BRICKER FARMS LANE, SALEM OH 44460
Derek G Williams officer: SVP, Training & Sales Develop 1221 CENTURY HILL STREET, LOUISVILLE OH 44641-2720
Frank L Paden director 7465 JAGUAR DR, BOARDMAN OH 44512
Laurie L Mcclellan director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN OF BOD 28 TEPEE DR, MINERVA OH 44644
Kiko Richard T Jr director 103 OVERWOOD RD, AKRON OH 44313
Scott E Dodds officer: EVP, Senior Loan Officer 2669 MT PLEASANT ST NE, NORTH CANTON OH 44721
Suzanne N Mikes officer: VP, Chief Credit Officer 4028 TROON DR, UNIONTOWN OH 44685
Renee Wood officer: Chief Financial Officer 1025 40TH STREET NE, CANTON OH 44714
Ann M Gano director 2053 MAY VALLEY RD SW, NEW PHILADELPHIA OH 44663
Schmuck Harry W Jr director 7200 RAVENNA AVE, LOUISVILLE OH 44641
John P/ Furey director 8050 AVALON RD NW, MALVERN OH 44644
Kimberly K Chuckalovchak officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer 10020 LINDEN RD NW, MINERVA OH 44657