ECBK (ECB Bancorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is ECB Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ECB Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ECB Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ECB Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ECB Bancorp Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » ECB Bancorp Inc (NAS:ECBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

419 Broadway, Everett, MA, USA, 02149

Website

https://www.everettbank.com

ECB Bancorp Inc operates as a bank holding company of Everett Co-operative Bank. The firm through its subsidiary engages in business consisting of taking deposits from the general public and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations, in one- to four-family residential real estate loans, commercial real estate, and multifamily real estate loans, construction and land loans and home equity lines of credit.

Executives

Brandon Lavertu	officer: CAO	419 BROADWAY, EVERETT MA 01249
John A Citrano	officer: EVP, COO and CFO	2 LEONARD STREET, BELMONT MA 02478
Paul A Delroy	director	419 BROADWAY, EVERETT MA 01249
O'neil Richard J Jr	director, officer: President and CEO	419 BROADWAY, EVERETT MA 01249
John Migliozzi	officer: EVP and CLO	67 PROSPECT STREET, PEABODY MA 01960
Marjorie A White	director	419 BROADWAY, EVERETT MA 01249
Dennis J Leonard	director, other: Chairman of the Board	419 BROADWAY, EVERETT MA 01249
Susan Sgroi	director	419 BROADWAY, EVERETT MA 01249
Joseph Sachetta	director	419 BROADWAY, EVERETT MA 01249
Elizabeth P Jones	director	419 BROADWAY, EVERETT MA 01249

ECB Bancorp Headlines

From GuruFocus

Is ECB Bancorp Inc Undervalued Following the Latest Insider Buy?

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 05-19-2023

Is ECB Bancorp Inc Undervalued Following the Latest Insider Buy?

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 05-18-2023

Vanguard Group Inc Reduces Stake in ECB Bancorp Inc

By GuruFocus News • 01-31-2025