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ZION (Zions Bancorp NA) Predictability Rank


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What is Zions Bancorp NA Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Zions Bancorp NA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Zions Bancorp NA Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Zions Bancorp NA Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
One South Main Street, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84133-1109
Zions Bancorporation is a regional US bank with core operations that span 11 states. The bank is headquartered in Salt Lake City and does business primarily in the Western and Southwestern United States. Zions focuses primarily on providing banking services to small and midsize businesses, with the bulk of its loans focused on commercial and commercial real estate lending.
Executives
Robert Ryan Richards officer: Controller 303 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, ATLANTA GA 30308
Jennifer Anne Smith other: Corp Chief Info Officer ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133
Steven Dan Stephens officer: Executive Vice President ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133-1109
Scott J Mclean officer: Executive Vice President 4400 POST OAK PARKWAY, 4TH FL, HOUSTON TX 77027
Paul E. Burdiss officer: Executive Vice President, other: & Chief Financial Officer ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133
Eric Ellingsen officer: President and COO 1 S MAIN STREET, 11TH FL, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133-1109
Bruce K Alexander officer: Exec VP and, Pres. of Subsidiary ONE SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Terry Alan Shirey officer: EVP, Chief Banking Officer ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FL, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133
Mark Richard Young officer: Exec VP, other: Pres. of Subidiary ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133-1109
Rebecca K Robinson officer: Executive Vice President ONE SOUTH MAIN STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY X1 84133
Alan M Forney officer: Exec VP & Pres. Of Subsidiary ONE S MAIN STREET, 11TH FL, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133
Harris H Simmons director, officer: Chairman, President, & CEO ZIONS BANCORPORATION, ONE MAIN STREET, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
A Scott Anderson officer: Executive Vice President ONE SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Randy R Stewart officer: Exec VP 1 S MAIN STREET, 11TH FLOOR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84133
Thomas E Laursen officer: Sr. Vice President &, General Counsel ONE SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111