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First Horizon (NYSE:FHN) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


First Horizon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

First Horizon Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of First Horizon's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


First Horizon (NYSE:FHN) Business Description

First Horizon logo
Address
165 Madison Avenue, Memphis, TN, USA, 38103
First Horizon Corp is the parent company of First Tennessee Bank, a prominent regional bank with about 200 branches around Tennessee. The regional bank is responsible for roughly 65% of its revenue, while capital markets make a 25% contribution. The remainder is split between the firm's non-strategic (wind-down) and corporate operations. First Horizon concentrates on offering a variety of banking products mainly in its home state, where it has the second- largest deposit franchise with a 13% deposit market share.
Executives
Hope Dmuchowski officer: Sr. EVP & CFO 165 MADISON AVE, MEMPHIS TN 38103
John N Casbon director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Tammy Locascio officer: Sr. EVP, Chief HR Officer 165 MADISON AVE, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Kemp Sr James Michael director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Ricky E Maples director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Terry Lawson Akins officer: Sr. EVP, Chief Risk Officer 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Elizabeth A Ardoin officer: SEVP, Chief Communications Ofc 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Rosa Sugranes director 2975 N.W. 77TH AVE, DORAL FL 33132
Anthony J Restel officer: SEVP Chief Operating Officer 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Shea E Stewart Iii director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
William H Fenstermaker director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Daryl G Byrd director, officer: Executive Chairman of Board 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Barton Harry V Jr director 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Michael J Brown officer: President - Regional Banking 200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Wendy P Davidson director 2210 WEST OAKLAWN DRIVE, SPRINGDALE AR 72762

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