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Penske Automotive Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.02% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Penske Automotive Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Auto & Truck Dealerships subindustry, Penske Automotive Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Penske Automotive Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Penske Automotive Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Penske Automotive Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Penske Automotive Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.38

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Penske Automotive Group  (NYSE:PAG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Penske Automotive Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Penske Automotive Group Business Description

Penske Automotive Group logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts NAICS : 441110 SIC : 5511
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2555 Telegraph Road, Bloomfield Hills, MI, USA, 48302-0954
Penske Automotive Group operates in 22 U.S. states and overseas. It has 143 U.S. light-vehicle franchises including in Puerto Rico as well as 161 franchises overseas, primarily in the United Kingdom. The company is the second- largest U.S.-based dealership in terms of light-vehicle revenue and sells more than 35 brands, with 93% of retail automotive revenue coming from luxury and import names. Other services, in addition to new and used vehicles, are parts and repair and finance and insurance. The firm's Premier Truck Group owns 35 truck dealerships selling mostly Freightliner and Western Star brands, and Penske owns 19 CarShop used-vehicle stores in the U.S. and U.K. The company is based in Michigan and was called United Auto Group before changing its name in 2007.
Executives
Carlson John D. Jr. officer: EVP & CFO 2555 TELEGRAPH RD. BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Barr John director 2555 TELEGRAPH ROAD BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302-0954
Spradlin Shane M. officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Sec. 2555 TELEGRAPH RD. BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Penske Roger S director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chair & CEO 2555 TELEGRAPH ROAD BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302-0954
Denker Claude H Iii officer: EVP - Human Resources 2555 TELEGRAPH RD BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Kurnick Robert H Jr director, officer: President 2555 TELEGRAPH ROAD BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302-0954
Penske Gregory W director 3534 NORTH PECK ROAD EL MONTE CA 91731
Pierce Sandra E. director 2555 TELEGRAPH RD. BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Duerheimer Wolfgang director 2555 TELEGRAPH RD BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Penske Roger S Jr director 2555 TELEGRAPH ROAD BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Mcwaters Kimberly J director 20410 NORTH 19TH AVENUE PHOENIX AZ 85027
Smith Greg C director FORD MOTOR COMPANY 21175 OAKWOOD BLVD DEARBORN MI 48124
Davis Lisa Ann director 2555 TELEGRAPH RD BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Eisenson Michael R director C/O CHARLESBANK CAPITAL PARTNERS 600 ATLANTIC AV 28TH FL BOSTON MA 02210
Thompson H Brian director 1950 OLD GALLOWS ROAD SUITE 201 VIENNA VA 22182

Penske Automotive Group Headlines

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