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PayPal Holdings (NAS:PYPL) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.05% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, PayPal Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Credit Services subindustry, PayPal Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


PayPal Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Credit Services industry and Financial Services sector, PayPal Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where PayPal Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



PayPal Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.69

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.05%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


PayPal Holdings  (NAS:PYPL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


PayPal Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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PayPal Holdings (NAS:PYPL) Business Description

Industry
Address
2211 North First Street, San Jose, CA, USA, 95131
PayPal was spun off from eBay in 2015 and provides electronic payment solutions to merchants and consumers, with a focus on online transactions. The company had 435 million active accounts at the end of 2022. The company also owns Venmo, a person-to-person payment platform.
Executives
James Alexander Chriss director, officer: President and CEO C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
John C. Kim officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer C/O OWLET, INC., 2500 EXECUTIVE PARKWAY, SUITE 500, LEHI UT 84043
Gabrielle Scheibe officer: See Remarks 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Blake J Jorgensen officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Enrique Lores director 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Jeffrey William Karbowski officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer 121 ALBRIGHT WAY, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Peggy Alford officer: EVP, Global Sales 435 TASSO STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
John D Rainey officer: CFO and EVP, Global Cust Oper C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Allison Johnson officer: EVP, Chief Marketing Officer C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC, 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Mark Britto officer: EVP, Global Sales and Credit C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Deborah M. Messemer director C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 210 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Rodney C Adkins director 55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Ann Sarnoff director C/O HSN, INC., 1 HSN DRIVE, SAINT PETERSBURG FL 33729
Aaron Karczmer officer: SVP, CR & Compliance Officer PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Belinda J. Johnson director 394 PACIFIC AVENUE, FLOOR 2, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111