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Union Bankshares (Union Bankshares) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.09% (As of Apr. 30, 2024)


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What is Union Bankshares Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Union Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.09%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Union Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Union Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Union Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Union Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Union Bankshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Union Bankshares Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.03

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.09%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Union Bankshares  (NAS:UNB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Union Bankshares Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Union Bankshares (Union Bankshares) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
20 Lower Main Street, P.O. Box 667, Morrisville, VT, USA, 05661-0667
Union Bankshares Inc operates as a community bank in the financial services industry. It offers retail and commercial banking services to its customers through its branches, ATMs, telebanking, and internet banking systems. The company provides retail banking services to individuals and commercial banking services to small and medium-sized corporations, partnerships, and sole proprietorships, as well as nonprofit organizations, local municipalities, and school districts within its market area. In addition, it also offers fiduciary and asset management services through its Asset Management Group. Geographically, all the business activity is functioned through the US.
Executives
Patricia N Hogan other: Officer of Union Bank 11 OLD ROUTE 15, CAMBRIDGE VT 05444
Dawn D Bugbee director 313 WEST SHORE ROAD, SOUTH HERO VT 05486
David Scott Silverman director, officer: President & CEO 153 LAZY LANE, MORRISVILLE VT 05661
Mary K Parent director 144 PLEASANT STREET, SAINT JOHNSBURY VT 05819
Nancy C Putnam director 413 JEFF HEIGHTS ROAD, JEFFERSONVILLE VT 05464
Van Dyke Cornelius John director P.O. BOX 1090, STOWE VT 05672-1090
Vincent W Schoenig other: Officer of Union Bank 75 FENIMORE STREET 2, MORRISVILLE VT 05661
Janet P Spitler other: Director of Union Bank 275 KENNEDY DRIVE, SOUTH BURLINGTON VT 05403
Gregory D Sargent director 15 CEDAR HILL DRIVE, ST. ALBANS VT 05478
Stephen H Kendall other: Officer of Union Bank 254 BIRCH ROAD, SHELBURNE VT 05482
Jonathan Jay Gould other: Officer of Union Bank 18 HUNT ROAD, BRISTOL NH 03222
Robert D Hofmann other: Officer of Union Bank 223 SNOW HILL ROAD, WATERBURY CENTER VT 05677
Carrie R Locklin other: Officer of Union Bank 388 WEST HILL ROAD, ST. JOHNSBURY VT 05819
Lura L Jacques other: Officer of Union Bank 1360 PIDGEON HILL ROAD, FRANKLIN VT 05457
Joel S Bourassa director PO BOX 568, NORTH WOODSTOCK NH 032620568