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HG Holdings (HG Holdings) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-48.41 (As of Jul. 20, 2024)


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What is HG Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-07-20), HG Holdings's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-48.41.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

HG Holdings's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for HG Holdings is N/A.

The industry rank for HG Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

STLY's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Insurance industry.
Industry Median: 0.56
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

HG Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for HG Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

HG Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

HG Holdings Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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HG Holdings Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of HG Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Insurance - Specialty subindustry, HG Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


HG Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, HG Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where HG Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



HG Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.24%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> HG Holdings's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 61.10%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-1.549.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

HG Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-1.549*31.2501
=-48.41

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-48.41-5.80)/-48.41
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


HG Holdings  (OTCPK:STLY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


HG Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of HG Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


HG Holdings (HG Holdings) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2115 East 7th Street, Suite 101, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28204
HG Holdings, Inc, together with its consolidated subsidiaries, operates through its wholly owned subsidiarie. The Company engages in the business of providing title insurance through the subsidiary NCTIC and providing title agency services through the subsidiaries NCTG, TAV, and Omega. Through NCTIC, the Company underwrites land title insurance for owners and mortgagees as the primary insurer. The Company currently only provides title insurance services in the state of Florida.
Executives
Peter Mark Sherman director 4409 MICKLETON ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28226
Justin Hayles Edenfield officer: Prin. Accting & Fin. Officer 6265 OLD WATER OAK ROAD, SUITE 204, TALLAHASSEE FL 32312
Hale Partnership Capital Management, Llc 10 percent owner 5960 FAIRVIEW ROAD, SUITE 432, CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Solas Capital Management, Llc 10 percent owner 1063 POST ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Hale Partnership Fund, L.p. 10 percent owner 3335 PARK SOUTH STATION BLVD., CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Matthew Hultquist director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Bradley G Garner officer: CFO and CAO 2115 E. 7TH STREET, SUITE 101, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Hale Steven A Ii director, 10 percent owner 5960 FAIRVIEW ROAD, SUITE 432, CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Matthew Wood Smith officer: Interim Chief Exec. Officer 200 N. HAMILTON STREET, HIGH POINT NC 27260
Jeffrey Stuart Gilliam director 200 N. HAMILTON STREET, NO. 200, HIGH POINT NC 27260
Tucker Golden Frederick 10 percent owner C/O SOLAS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1063 POST ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Michael P Haley director 200 NORTH HAMILTON STREET, NO. 200, HIGH POINT NC 27260
Talanta Investment Group, Llc director, 10 percent owner 401 N. TRYON STREET, 10TH FLOOR, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Justyn Rendal Putnam director 200 N. HAMILTON STREET, NO. 200, HIGH POINT NC 27260
Ian Dundee Lapey director 200 N. HAMILTON STREET, NO. 200, HIGH POINT NC 27260

HG Holdings (HG Holdings) Headlines

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