Helia Group (ASX:HLI) Beneish M-Score: -2.86 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


ASX:HLI Helia Group Ltd ASX:HLI
69 GF Score
Price A$5.39
GF Value A$4.02
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is Helia Group Beneish M-Score?

Helia Group ASX:HLI -1.46% 69 Beneish M-Score is -2.86 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASX:HLI with a GF Score™ of 69/100 and a GF Value™ of A$4.02 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 399 Insurance companies, Helia Group ranks better than 80.95% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.86 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Helia Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ASX:HLI' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.46   Med: -2.57   Max: -0.72
Current: -2.86

During the past 12 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Helia Group was -0.72. The lowest was -3.46. And the median was -2.57.

ASX:HLI
69GF Score
Helia Group Ltd ASX:HLI
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Helia Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Helia Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.7796+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0004+0.892 * 0.9297+0.115 * 0.9306
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * -0.092527-0.327 * 0
=-2.86

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was A$16.1 Mil.
Revenue was A$481.3 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$481.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was A$2,539.8 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$5.8 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$112.6 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$0.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$0.0 Mil.
Net Income was A$244.9 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$371.5 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was A$108.4 Mil.
 Total Receivables was A$22.2 Mil.
Revenue was A$517.7 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$517.7 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was A$2,932.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$8.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$61.6 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$0.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$189.7 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(16.1 / 481.3) / (22.213 / 517.681)
=0.033451 / 0.042909
=0.7796

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(517.681 / 517.681) / (481.3 / 481.3)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 5.8) / 2539.8) / (1 - (0 + 7.999) / 2932.579)
=0.997716 / 0.997272
=1.0004

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=481.3 / 517.681
=0.9297

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(61.573 / (61.573 + 7.999)) / (112.6 / (112.6 + 5.8))
=0.885026 / 0.951014
=0.9306

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 481.3) / (0 / 517.681)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 0) / 2539.8) / ((189.726 + 0) / 2932.579)
=0 / 0.064696
=0

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(244.9 - 371.5 - 108.4) / 2539.8
=-0.092527

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Helia Group has a M-score of -2.86 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.86 mean?
Helia Group (ASX:HLI) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.86 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Helia Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Helia Group ranks #76 out of 399 companies in the Insurance industry, placing it in the top 19%.
Is Helia Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
Helia Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.86. Based on the distribution chart, Helia Group ranks #76 out of 399 companies in the Insurance industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Helia Group has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Helia Group's Beneish M-Score compare to FNF and AXS?
According to the Insurance industry distribution chart, Helia Group ranks #76 out of 399 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Helia Group in the top 19% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Insurance company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Insurance industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Helia Group and its competitors. Helia Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.86. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Helia Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Helia Group (ASX:HLI) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$4.02, compared to a current price of A$5.39 — trading 34.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.86. Helia Group's overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Helia Group (ASX:HLI), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.86 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Helia Group (ASX:HLI) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Helia Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of A$5.39 is trading 34.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$4.02. GuruFocus considers Helia Group to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ASX:HLI:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.86
  • GF Value™: A$4.02 vs. price of A$5.39 (34.1% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 69/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:HLI stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Helia Group Business Description

Other Exchanges 0GI0:Germany
Address 101 Miller Street, Level 26, North Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AUS, 2060
Helia listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in 2014 after its US-based parent, Genworth Financial (NYSE: GNW), sold down its stake. It has since exited. With a history spanning over 50 years, Helia is the largest provider of lenders' mortgage insurance, or LMI, in Australia. In Australia, LMI is predominantly purchased on loans with a loan/value ratio, or LVR, above 80%. LMI protects a lender against a potential loss (gap) between the outstanding loan amount and sale proceeds on a delinquent loan property. LMI does not protect the borrower, however the premium is paid by the borrower. It's regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, which requires it to meet minimum regulatory capital requirements.
69GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ASX:HLI

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$5.39
Price
A$4.02
GF Value