PayPal Holdings Beneish M-Score Historical Data
The historical data trend for PayPal Holdings's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
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PayPal Holdings Annual Data
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Trend |
Dec13 |
Dec14 |
Dec15 |
Dec16 |
Dec17 |
Dec18 |
Dec19 |
Dec20 |
Dec21 |
Dec22 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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|
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|
|
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-2.79 |
-2.41 |
-2.42 |
-2.38 |
-2.58 |
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PayPal Holdings Quarterly Data
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Sep18 |
Dec18 |
Mar19 |
Jun19 |
Sep19 |
Dec19 |
Mar20 |
Jun20 |
Sep20 |
Dec20 |
Mar21 |
Jun21 |
Sep21 |
Dec21 |
Mar22 |
Jun22 |
Sep22 |
Dec22 |
Mar23 |
Jun23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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|
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|
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-2.45 |
-2.55 |
-2.58 |
-2.60 |
-2.50 |
Competitive Comparison
For the Credit Services subindustry, PayPal Holdings's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
PayPal Holdings Beneish M-Score Distribution
For the Credit Services industry and Financial Services sector, PayPal Holdings's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where PayPal Holdings's Beneish M-Score falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Beneish M-Score's extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.
PayPal Holdings Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of PayPal Holdings for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 0.8858 | + | 0.528 * 1.0627 | + | 0.404 * 0.9496 | + | 0.892 * 1.0821 | + | 0.115 * 0.9713 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 0.7937 | + | 4.679 * -0.0072 | - | 0.327 * 0.9869 |
| = | -2.50 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Jun23) TTM: | Last Year (Jun22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $42,021 Mil.
Revenue was 7287 + 7040 + 7383 + 6846 = $28,556 Mil.
Gross Profit was 3348 + 3315 + 3671 + 3491 = $13,825 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $54,125 Mil.
Total Assets was $74,579 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,589 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,195 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $3,945 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $41,754 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $10,549 Mil.
Net Income was 1029 + 795 + 921 + 1330 = $4,075 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 117 + -110 + -154 + 443 = $296 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -200 + 1170 + 1157 + 2189 = $4,316 Mil.
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Total Receivables was $43,837 Mil.
Revenue was 6806 + 6483 + 6918 + 6182 = $26,389 Mil.
Gross Profit was 3314 + 3297 + 3616 + 3350 = $13,577 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $55,252 Mil.
Total Assets was $77,810 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,832 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $1,310 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $4,593 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $45,095 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $10,198 Mil.
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1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (42021 / 28556) | / | (43837 / 26389) |
| = | 1.47153 | / | 1.661185 |
| | = | 0.8858 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (13577 / 26389) | / | (13825 / 28556) |
| = | 0.514495 | / | 0.484136 |
| | = | 1.0627 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (54125 + 1589) / 74579) | / | (1 - (55252 + 1832) / 77810) |
| = | 0.252953 | / | 0.266367 |
| | = | 0.9496 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 28556 | / | 26389 |
| | = | 1.0821 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (1310 / (1310 + 1832)) | / | (1195 / (1195 + 1589)) |
| = | 0.416932 | / | 0.429239 |
| | = | 0.9713 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (3945 / 28556) | / | (4593 / 26389) |
| = | 0.13815 | / | 0.17405 |
| | = | 0.7937 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((10549 + 41754) / 74579) | / | ((10198 + 45095) / 77810) |
| = | 0.70131 | / | 0.710616 |
| | = | 0.9869 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (4075 - 296 | - | 4316) | / | 74579 |
| | = | -0.0072 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
PayPal Holdings has a M-score of -2.50 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
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