Globe Life (Globe Life) Predictability Rank

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What is Globe Life Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Globe Life Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Globe Life (Globe Life) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Globe Life Inc (NYSE:GL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

G1LL34:Brazil

Address

3700 South Stonebridge Drive, McKinney, TX, USA, 75070

Website

https://www.globelifeinsurance.com

Globe Life Inc is an insurance holding company. It provides a variety of life and supplemental health insurance products and annuities to a broad base of customers. The company's core operations are organized into four reportable segments: life insurance, supplemental health insurance, annuities, and investments. Investment activities, conducted by the investment segment, focus on seeking investments with a yield and term appropriate to support the insurance product obligations. These investments generally consist of fixed maturities and, over the long term, the expected yields are considered when setting insurance premium rates and product profitability expectations.

Executives

Jennifer Allison Haworth	officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer	3700 S. STONEBRIDGE DRIVE, MCKINNEY TX 75070
Melissa Jane Buchan	director	1920 MAIN STREET, SUITE 500, IRVINE CA 92614
Dolores L Skarjune	officer: EVP & Chief Admin. Officer	3700 S. STONEBRIDGE DRIVE, MCKINNEY TX 75070
Rebecca E Zorn	officer: EVP & Chief Talent Officer	3700 S. STONEBRIDGE DRIVE, MCKINNEY TX 75070
Michael Clay Majors	officer: EVP - Investor Rel. & Admin.	UNITED AMERICAN INSURANCE COMPANY, 3700 SOUTH STONEBRIDGE DRIVE, MCKINNEY TX 75070
Frank M Svoboda	officer: EVP & CFO	3340 PECAN HOLLOW CT, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
James Matthew Darden	officer: EVP, Chief Strategy Officer	2904 BELCLAIRE DRIVE, FRISCO TX 75034
Michael Shane Henrie	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	UNITED AMERICAN INSURANCE COMPANY, 3700 SOUTH STONEBRIDGE DRIVE, MCKINNEY TX 75070
Robert Brian Mitchell	officer: EVP, General Counsel and CRO	3120 HARVEY PKWY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73118
Cheryl Alston	director	3700 S. STONEBRIDGE DRIVE, MCKINNEY TX 75070
David A Rodriguez	director	10400 FERNWOOD ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20817
Alice S Cho	director	P.O. BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116-0918
Steven John Dichiaro	other: Exec. Officer of Principal Sub	2152 SEVEN LAKES DR, LOVELAND CO 80538
Gary L Coleman	director, officer: Co-Chairman & CEO
Larry M Hutchison	director, officer: Co-Chaiman & CEO	P O BOX 8080, MCKINNEY TX 75010