Hanmi Financial (Hanmi Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Hanmi Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hanmi Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hanmi Financial (Hanmi Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Hanmi Financial Corp (NAS:HAFC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

900 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 1250, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90017

Website

https://www.hanmi.com

Hanmi Financial Corp is a Los Angeles-based bank that caters to Korean-Americans and other multi-ethnic communities across California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Texas, Virginia, and Washington. The bank mainly focuses on small businesses and commercial and real estate loans. Hanmi also offers trade-finance products. The bank has several lending offices outside California and plans to expand outside the state mainly through acquisitions. The Bank's revenues are derived from interest and fees on loans, interest, and dividends on the securities portfolio, service charges on deposit accounts, and sales of SBA loans.

Executives

Romolo Santarosa	officer: SEVP, Corp. Finance & Strategy	6538 VERDE RIDGE ROAD, RANCHO PALOS VERDES CA 90275
Harry Chung	director	C/O IMPERIAL CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 9TH FL. SOUTH, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Michael Yang	director	3660 WILSHIRE BLVD., PH-A, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Gloria J Lee	director	900 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1250, LOS ANGELES CA 90017
Joseph Pangrazio	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	900 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1250, LOS ANGELES CA 90017
Gideon Yu	director	3660 WILSHIRE BLVD., PH-A, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
John J Ahn	director	150 SOUTH FIFTH STREET, SUITE 1360, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Patrick M Carr	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	3660 WILSHIRE BLVD., PH-A, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Bonita Lee	officer: SEVP & Chief Operating Officer	3731 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 1000, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
David L Rosenblum	director	3660 WILSHIRE BLVD., PH-A, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Anthony I. Kim	officer: Chief Banking Officer	3660 WILSHIRE BLVD., PH-A, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Michael Du	officer: Chief Risk Officer	3660 WILSHIRE BLVD., PH-A, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Joseph K Rho	director	3660 WILSHIRS BLVD PH-A, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Scott Diehl	director	3660 WILSHIRE BLVD., PH-A, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Kiho Choi	director	3435 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 2240, LOS ANGELES CA 90010