FLG (Flagstar Financial) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

What is Flagstar Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flagstar Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Flagstar Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Flagstar Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Flagstar Financial Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Flagstar Financial Inc (NYSE:FLG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FLGpA.PFD:USA QC10:Germany

Address

102 Duffy Avenue, Hicksville, Hicksville, NY, USA, 11801

Website

https://www.flagstar.com

Flagstar Financial Inc operates over 400 branches, including a presence in the Northeast and Midwest and locations in high-growth markets in the Southeast and West Coast. In addition, the Bank has approximately 90 private banking teams located in over 10 cities in the metropolitan New York City region and on the West Coast, which serve the needs of high net-worth individuals and their businesses.

Executives

Marshall Lux	director	5 BREWSTER STREET #2105, GLEN COVE NY 11542
Peter Schoels	director	GLOBAL AERO LOGISTICS INC., 101 WORLD DRIVE, PEACHTREE CITY GA 30269
Lee Matthew Smith	officer: SEVP & President of Mortgage	C/O FLAGSTAR BANCORP INC., 5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
David L Treadwell	director	222 S 15TH STREET, SUITE 600 N, OMAHA NE 68102
Jennifer R Whip	director	621 PUGH ROAD, WAYNE PA 19087
Julie Signorille	officer: SEVP & COO	102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Thomas R Cangemi	officer: Senior Executive VP	C/O NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP INC, 102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Reginald E Davis	officer: Sr EVP & President of Banking	5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
Eric Howell	officer: SEVP/Pres Comm & Private Bking	102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Nicholas Christopher Munson	officer: EVP & Chief Risk Officer	C/O NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP, INC., 102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Bryan Marx	officer: EVP & Princ Accounting Officer	5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
John Thomas Adams	officer: SEVP Dir. Multi-Family Lending	C/O NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP, INC., 102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Ronald A. Rosenfeld	director	NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP INC, 102 DUFFY AVENUE, HICKSVILLE NY 11801
Alessandro Dinello	director, other: Non-Executive Chairman	5300 DEER RIDGE ROAD, JACKSON MI 49201
Toan Huynh	director	5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098