Spruce Biosciences (Spruce Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Spruce Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Spruce Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Spruce Biosciences (Spruce Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Spruce Biosciences Inc (NAS:SPRB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

611 Gateway Boulevard, Suite 740, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.sprucebiosciences.com

Spruce Biosciences Inc is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel therapies for rare endocrine disorders with unmet medical needs. The company is initially developing its wholly-owned product candidate, tildacerfont, as the potential first non-steroidal therapy to offer markedly improved disease control and reduce steroid burden for patients suffering from classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH).

Executives

Percival Barretto-ko	director	611 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 740, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Niall O'donnell	director	C/O RIVERVEST VENTURE PARTNERS, 101 SOUTH HANLEY RD., STE 1850, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Charlton Ralph William Iii	officer: Chief Medical Officer	2001 JUNIPERO SERRA BOULEVARD, SUITE 640, DALY CITY CA 94104
Javier B. Szwarcberg	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2001 JUNIPERO SERRA BOULEVARD, SUITE 640, DALY CITY CA 94014
Kirk Ways	director	C/O 2001 JUNIPERO SERRA BOULEVARD, SUITE 540, DALY CITY CA 94014
Camilla V Simpson	director	20 ELAINE AVE., MILL VALLEY CA 94941
Bali Muralidhar	director	C/O EXICURE, INC., 8045 LAMON AVENUE, SUITE 410, SKOKIE IL 60077
Jonas Hansson	director	18 AVENUE D'OUCHY, LAUSANNE V8 CH-1006
Rivervest Venture Fund Iii (ohio), L.p.	10 percent owner	11000 CEDAR AVENUE, SUITE 100, CLEVELAND OH 44106-3502
Healthcap Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner	18 AVENUE D'OUCHY, C/O HEALTHCAP VIII GP SA, CH 1006 LAUSANNE V8 1006
Moghrabi Dina Chaya	director	22 GLEDHOW GARDENS, FLAT 2, LONDON X0 SW5 0AZ
Omega Fund Vi Gp Manager, Ltd.	10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Samir M. Gharib	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2655 PINE STREET, #6, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94115
Richard King	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O KOS PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 1001 BRICKELL AVE 25TH FL, MIAMI FL 33131