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PayPal Holdings Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


PayPal Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PayPal Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PayPal Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


PayPal Holdings Business Description

PayPal Holdings logo
Industry
Financial Services » Credit Services NAICS : 522390 SIC : 7389
Address
2211 North First Street, San Jose, CA, USA, 95131
PayPal was spun off from eBay in 2015 and provides electronic payment solutions to merchants and consumers, with a focus on online transactions. The company had 426 million active accounts at the end of 2021, including 34 million merchant accounts. The company also owns Xoom, an international money transfer business, and Venmo, a person-to-person payment platform.
Executives
Karbowski Jeffrey William officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer 2211 N 1ST ST SAN JOSE CA 95131
Schulman Daniel H director, officer: President and CEO C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131
Moffett David M director C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131
Yeary Frank D director C/O INTEL CORPORATION 2200 MISSION COLLEGE BLVD., RN4-151 SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Auerbach Jonathan officer: EVP, Chief Strategy & Growth O C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131
Britto Mark officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131
Alford Peggy officer: EVP, Global Sales 435 TASSO STREET PALO ALTO CA 94301
Anderson Aaron officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131
Messemer Deborah M. director C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC. 210 EAST GRAND AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Adkins Rodney C director IBM CORPORATION 294 ROUTE 100 SOMERS NY 10589
Sarnoff Ann director C/O HSN, INC. 1 HSN DRIVE SAINT PETERSBURG FL 33729
Donahoe John J director C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131
Dorman David W director CVS HEALTH. ONE CVS DRIVE WOONSOCKET RI 02895
Christodoro Jonathan director C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P. 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Mcgovern Gail J director ONE ENERGY PLAZA., 688WCB DETROIT MI 48226

PayPal Holdings Headlines

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