PYPL (PayPal Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is PayPal Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PayPal Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PayPal Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PayPal Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » PayPal Holdings Inc (NAS:PYPL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PYPL:Peru PYPL:Mexico PYPL_KZ:Kazakhstan 1PYPL:Italy 2PPd:UK 0R9U:UK 2PP:Germany PYPL:Canada PYPL34:Brazil PYPL:Austria PYPL:Argentina

Address

2211 North First Street, San Jose, CA, USA, 95131

Website

https://www.paypal.com

PayPal was spun off from eBay in 2015 and provides electronic payment solutions to merchants and consumers, with a focus on online transactions. The company had 434 million active accounts at the end of 2024. The company also owns Venmo, a person-to-person payment platform.

Executives

Gail J Mcgovern	director	ONE ENERGY PLAZA., 688WCB, DETROIT MI 48226
Deborah M. Messemer	director	C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 210 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Peggy Alford	officer: EVP, Global Sales	435 TASSO STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Jonathan Auerbach	officer: SVP, Strategy & Growth Off.	C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
James Alexander Chriss	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gabrielle Scheibe	officer: See Remarks	2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Daniel H Schulman	director, officer: President and Chief Executive	C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
John C. Kim	officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer	C/O OWLET, INC., 2500 EXECUTIVE PARKWAY, SUITE 500, LEHI UT 84043
Blake J Jorgensen	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Mark Britto	officer: EVP, Global Sales and Credit	C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Enrique Lores	director	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Frank D Yeary	director	C/O INTEL CORPORATION, 2200 MISSION COLLEGE BLVD., RN4-151, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
David W Dorman	director	CVS HEALTH., ONE CVS DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895
Jeffrey William Karbowski	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	121 ALBRIGHT WAY, LOS GATOS CA 95032
John J Donahoe	director	C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC, 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131