Market Cap : 92.78 B | Enterprise Value : 92.34 B | PE Ratio : 26.36 | PB Ratio : 4.49 |
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks | |
---|---|---|---|
Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Out of All 2403 Stocks | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 76.3% | 100% |
% that are in Loss (10y) | 3% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 16% | 45% | 37% |
Average Gain (10y) | 364.6% | 330.9% | 278.0% | 235.1% | 243.5% | 227.8% | 154.8% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
Median Gain (10y) | 238.5% | 193.5% | 171.0% | 159.0% | 132.5% | 113.5% | 87.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
Maximum Gainer | 2228.0% | 2547.0% | 2452.0% | 2852.0% | 2432.0% | 1892.0% | 1807.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
Maximum Loser | -82.0% | -53.0% | -67.0% | -100.0% | -83.0% | -100.0% | -78.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Annualized Average Gain | 15.4% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
Annualized Median Gain | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of ValuationsThank you for viewing the detailed overview of PayPal Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Karbowski Jeffrey William | officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer | 2211 N 1ST ST SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
Schulman Daniel H | director, officer: President and CEO | C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
Moffett David M | director | C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
Yeary Frank D | director | C/O INTEL CORPORATION 2200 MISSION COLLEGE BLVD., RN4-151 SANTA CLARA CA 95054 |
Auerbach Jonathan | officer: EVP, Chief Strategy & Growth O | C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
Britto Mark | officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer | C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
Alford Peggy | officer: EVP, Global Sales | 435 TASSO STREET PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
Anderson Aaron | officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer | C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
Messemer Deborah M. | director | C/O ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC. 210 EAST GRAND AVENUE SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
Adkins Rodney C | director | IBM CORPORATION 294 ROUTE 100 SOMERS NY 10589 |
Sarnoff Ann | director | C/O HSN, INC. 1 HSN DRIVE SAINT PETERSBURG FL 33729 |
Donahoe John J | director | C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
Dorman David W | director | CVS HEALTH. ONE CVS DRIVE WOONSOCKET RI 02895 |
Christodoro Jonathan | director | C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P. 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH SUNNY ISLES FL 33160 |
Mcgovern Gail J | director | ONE ENERGY PLAZA., 688WCB DETROIT MI 48226 |
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