Orange County Bancorp (Orange County Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Orange County Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Orange County Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Orange County Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Orange County Bancorp (Orange County Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Orange County Bancorp Inc (NAS:OBT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

212 Dolson Avenue, Middletown, NY, USA, 10940

Website

https://www.orangebanktrust.com

Orange County Bancorp Inc provides banking services. Its services include personal banking services such as personal loans, personal savings, business loans, business savings, and internet banking among others. The company provides commercial and consumer banking services to individuals, small businesses and local municipal governments as well as trust and investment services through the Bank and HVIA. Its segment includes banking and wealth management. The company generates maximum revenue from the banking segment.

Executives

Stephen Rooney	officer: SVP, Co-Chief Credit Officer	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Michael Listner	officer: SVP and CCO	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Michael J Coulter	officer: EVP and CLO	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Gregory Sousa	officer: EVP and CCBO	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Olga Luz Tirado	director	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Joseph A Ruhl	officer: Reg Pres, Westchester County	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Gustave J Scacco	director	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Michael J Gilfeather	director, officer: President and CEO	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Terry R Saturno	director	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
William D Morrison	director	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
David P Dineen	officer: SVP, Dir. Wealth Services	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Louis Heimbach	director	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Kevin J Keane	director	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Jonathan F Rouis	director	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940
Gregory F Holcombe	director	212 DOLSON AVENUE, MIDDLETOWN NY 10940