Provident Financial Services (Provident Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Provident Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Provident Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Provident Financial Services (Provident Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Provident Financial Services Inc (NYSE:PFS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PQ3:Germany

Address

239 Washington Street, Jersey, NJ, USA, 07302

Website

https://www.provident.bank

Provident Financial Services Inc is the holding company for The Provident Bank, a community-oriented bank. The company provides a comprehensive array of financial products and services through its network of branches throughout northern and central New Jersey, and certain counties in Pennsylvania. The company's strategy emphasizes growing high-return businesses in nonstandard markets, and maintaining a secured capital structure. Commercial loans represent a plurality of the company's loans, followed by construction loans. The majority of the revenue-generating activities that are components of non-interest income are These revenue streams can generally be classified into three broad categories: wealth management revenue, insurance agency income, and banking service charges and other fees.

Executives

James P Dunigan	director	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Vito Giannola	officer: EVP & Chief Retail Banking Ofc	C/O SUSSEX BANCORP, 399 ROUTE 23, FRANKLIN NJ 07416
Walter Sierotko	officer: EVP/CLO of Provident Bank	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Frank L Fekete	director
Bennett Macdougall	officer: EVP, General Counsel, Sec	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
George Lista	officer: President/CEO SB One Insurance	C/O SUSSEX BANK, 399 ROUTE 23, FRANKLIN NJ 07416
Anthony J Labozzetta	director, officer: President and COO	SUSSEX BANCORP, 399 ROUTE 23, FRANKLIN NJ 07416
Adriano M. Duarte	officer: EVP & CAO of Provident Bank	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Matthew K. Harding	director	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Robert Mcnerney	director	C/O SUSSEX BANK, 399 ROUTE 23, FRANKLIN NJ 07416
James A. Christy	officer: SVP, CRO of Provident Bank, other: General Auditor	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Ravi Vakacherla	officer: Chief Digital & Innovation Off	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Valerie O Murray	officer: SVP & Chief Wealth Mgmt Ofc	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
John Pugliese	director	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Nadine Duchemin-leslie	director	239 WASHINGTON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302