HG Holdings (HG Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HG Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HG Holdings (HG Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » HG Holdings Inc (OTCPK:STLY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2115 East 7th Street, Suite 101, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28204

Website

https://www.hgholdingsinc.net

HG Holdings, Inc, together with its consolidated subsidiaries, operates through its wholly owned subsidiarie. The Company engages in the business of providing title insurance through the subsidiary NCTIC and providing title agency services through the subsidiaries NCTG, TAV, and Omega. Through NCTIC, the Company underwrites land title insurance for owners and mortgagees as the primary insurer. The Company currently only provides title insurance services in the state of Florida.

Executives

Peter Mark Sherman	director	4409 MICKLETON ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28226
Justin Hayles Edenfield	officer: Prin. Accting & Fin. Officer	6265 OLD WATER OAK ROAD, SUITE 204, TALLAHASSEE FL 32312
Hale Partnership Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	5960 FAIRVIEW ROAD, SUITE 432, CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Solas Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	1063 POST ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Hale Partnership Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	3335 PARK SOUTH STATION BLVD., CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Matthew Hultquist	director	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Bradley G Garner	officer: CFO and CAO	2115 E. 7TH STREET, SUITE 101, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Hale Steven A Ii	director, 10 percent owner	5960 FAIRVIEW ROAD, SUITE 432, CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Matthew Wood Smith	officer: Interim Chief Exec. Officer	200 N. HAMILTON STREET, HIGH POINT NC 27260
Jeffrey Stuart Gilliam	director	200 N. HAMILTON STREET, NO. 200, HIGH POINT NC 27260
Tucker Golden Frederick	10 percent owner	C/O SOLAS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1063 POST ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Michael P Haley	director	200 NORTH HAMILTON STREET, NO. 200, HIGH POINT NC 27260
Talanta Investment Group, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	401 N. TRYON STREET, 10TH FLOOR, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Justyn Rendal Putnam	director	200 N. HAMILTON STREET, NO. 200, HIGH POINT NC 27260
Ian Dundee Lapey	director	200 N. HAMILTON STREET, NO. 200, HIGH POINT NC 27260