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Arena REITASX:ARF +2.11%82 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -8.07% as of Jun. 2025. GuruFocus rates ASX:ARF with a GF Score™ of 82/100 and a GF Value™ of A$3.56 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 619 REITs companies, Arena REIT ranks worse than 82.07% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Arena REIT's forward rate of return for was -8.07%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Arena REIT's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
ASX:ARF'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -8.49 Med: 4.06 Max: 23.2
Current: -5.34
During the past 13 years, Arena REIT's highest Forward Rate of Return was 23.20. The lowest was -8.49. And the median was 4.06.
ASX:ARF's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 82.07% of 619
companies
in the REITs industry
Industry Median: 8.24
vs ASX:ARF: -5.34
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Arena REIT Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Arena REIT Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Arena REIT's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Arena REIT Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
ASX:ARF vs EQIX, AMT, DLR: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the REIT - Specialty subindustry, Arena REIT's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Arena REIT Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs REITs Industry
For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Arena REIT's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Arena REIT's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Arena REIT Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
Arena REIT's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2025 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
0.16533333
/
3.71
+
-0.1253
=
-8.07 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -8.07% mean?
Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -8.07% as of Jun. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Arena REIT and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Arena REIT ranks #508 out of 619 companies in the REITs industry, placing it in the top 82.1%.
Is Arena REIT's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Arena REIT's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -8.07%. Based on the distribution chart, Arena REIT ranks #508 out of 619 companies in the REITs industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Arena REIT has a GF Score™ of 82/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Arena REIT's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to EQIX and AMT?
According to the REITs industry distribution chart, Arena REIT ranks #508 out of 619 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Arena REIT in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.24. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a REITs company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among REITs companies is 8.24, based on 619 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Arena REIT and its competitors. For the REITs industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.24 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Arena REIT's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -8.07%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Arena REIT stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is A$3.56, compared to a current price of A$2.42 — trading 32% below its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -8.07%. Arena REIT's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Arena REIT (ASX:ARF), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -8.07% as of Jun. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Arena REIT (ASX:ARF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Arena REIT stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of A$2.42 is trading 32% below its estimated GF Value™ of A$3.56.
GuruFocus considers Arena REIT to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for ASX:ARF:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: -8.07%
GF Value™: A$3.56 vs. price of A$2.42 (32% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:ARF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Arena REIT is an internally managed Australian property trust. The REIT specializes in leasing social infrastructure properties, with close to 300 childcare centers and about a dozen healthcare facilities in its portfolio. Typically, tenants enter into long-term leases with inflation-linked or fixed rental escalations every year. All leases are "triple net," meaning tenants pay for all statutory and operating outgoings and costs, such as land tax, insurance, electricity, and maintenance. The tenant profile is concentrated—almost three quarters of rents are generated from the top five tenants. Arena actively grows its property book through acquisitions and developments, and historically added on average 10 sites, net of divestments, per year.
82GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ASX:ARF
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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