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Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co (SHSE:600809) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % : 23.15% (As of Mar. 2025)


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What is Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %?

Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's forward rate of return for was 23.15%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

SHSE:600809' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -22.23   Med: 20.83   Max: 23.95
Current: 23.95

During the past 13 years, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's highest Forward Rate of Return was 23.95. The lowest was -22.23. And the median was 20.83.

SHSE:600809's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than
86.08% of 158 companies
in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry
Industry Median: 9.295 vs SHSE:600809: 23.95

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Annual Data
Trend Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 20.37 20.66 21.21 21.92 23.14

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Quarterly Data
Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 22.22 22.45 22.65 23.14 23.15

Competitive Comparison of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

For the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries subindustry, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution in the Beverages - Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.


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Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's Forward Rate of Return of Mar. 2025 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=6.75009524/214.28+0.2
=23.15 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co  (SHSE:600809) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Xinghua Village, Fenyang County, Shanxi, Lvliang, CHN, 032205
Shanxi Fen Wine, or Fen Wine, is a typical light-flavored baijiu, featuring a fresher, lighter, and purer-taste compared with jiang-flavored and rich-flavored spirits. The company offers a comprehensive product portfolio, covering sub-premium, mid- to high range, and low-end products. The mid- to high-end baijiu contributed about 74% of the company's sales revenue in 2024, including sub-premium brand Qinghua, midrange products Panama and Laobaifen. The State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shanxi province controls 51% of Fen Wine.
Executives
Du Xiao Wei senior management
Zhang Yong Yong senior management
Gao Zhi Feng senior management
Li Jun senior management
Wang Tao senior management
Ma Shi Biao senior management
Li Cheng Gang senior management
Wu Shi Jie senior management
Wu Ai Dong senior management
Hao Guang Ling senior management
Song Qing Nian senior management
Yang Bo Director
Li Ming Qiang Director
Zhao Hai Gen Supervisors
Zhao Ling senior management

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Headlines

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