Kumari Bank (XNEP:KBL) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06% (As of Jul. 02, 2026)


XNEP:KBL Kumari Bank Ltd XNEP:KBL
77 GF Score
Price NPR210.10
GF Value NPR231.80
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 1 Warning Sign
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What is Kumari Bank Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Kumari Bank XNEP:KBL +2.89% 77 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jul. 02, 2026. GuruFocus rates XNEP:KBL with a GF Score™ of 77/100 and a GF Value™ of NPR231.80 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Kumari Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Kumari Bank  (XNEP:KBL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Kumari Bank Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


Kumari Bank Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Kumari Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Kumari Bank Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Kumari Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Kumari Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


XNEP:KBL
77GF Score
Kumari Bank Ltd XNEP:KBL
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Kumari Bank Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.40

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% mean?
Kumari Bank (XNEP:KBL) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% as of Jul. 02, 2026.
Is Kumari Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Kumari Bank's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Overall, Kumari Bank has a GF Score™ of 77/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Kumari Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
Kumari Bank's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% can be compared against companies in the Banks industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Banks company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Banks industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Kumari Bank's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Kumari Bank stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kumari Bank (XNEP:KBL) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is NPR231.80, compared to a current price of NPR210.10 — trading 9.4% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Kumari Bank's overall GF Score™ is 77/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Kumari Bank (XNEP:KBL), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jul. 02, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Kumari Bank (XNEP:KBL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kumari Bank stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of NPR210.10 is trading 9.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of NPR231.80. GuruFocus considers Kumari Bank to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for XNEP:KBL:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06%
  • GF Value™: NPR231.80 vs. price of NPR210.10 (9.4% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 77/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the XNEP:KBL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Kumari Bank Business Description

Address Thirbam Sadak, Tangal, Kathmandu, NPL
Kumari Bank Ltd provides banking services in Nepal, including loans, deposits, trade finance, card services, remittances, e-commerce, and bullion trading with technological support. Its operating segments are Banking, Cards, Remittance Services, Digital Banking, and Treasury. The Banking segment includes loans, deposits, trade operations, and related services. Cards cover credit, debit, and prepaid card products along with digital payment services. Remittance services include inward and outward transfers, while Treasury involves investment activities, foreign exchange trading, and liquidity management. The majority of revenue is generated from the Banking segment.
77GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XNEP:KBL

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

NPR210.10
Price
NPR231.80
GF Value