E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.
Fossil Group's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2026 was $-0.389. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is $1.10 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2026.
During the past 12 months, Fossil Group's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was -36.80% per year.
During the past 3 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was -29.40% per year.
During the past 5 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was -21.20% per year.
During the past 10 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was -8.20% per year.
Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.
During the past 13 years, the highest 3-Year average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate of Fossil Group was 29.60% per year. The lowest was -29.40% per year. And the median was 14.80% per year.
Fossil Group (NAS:FOSL) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation
If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.
For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.
The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
During the past 13 years, the highestCyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Fossil Group was 10.33. The lowest was 0.32. And the median was 2.26.
Be Aware
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.
Fossil Group Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms
Fossil Group Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Fossil Group's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Fossil Group Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart
FOSL vs FWDI, RCKY, DBI: Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Comparison
For the Footwear & Accessories subindustry, Fossil Group's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Fossil Group Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF vs Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories Industry
For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Fossil Group's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Fossil Group's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.
Fossil Group Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation
E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.
What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.
If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.
We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.
Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.
What does a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of $1.10 mean?
Fossil Group (FOSL) has a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of $1.10 as of Mar. 2026. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on Fossil Group and its competitors.
Is Fossil Group's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share too high?
Fossil Group's current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is $1.10. Overall, Fossil Group has a GF Score™ of 48/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Fossil Group's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share compare to FWDI and RCKY?
Fossil Group's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of $1.10 can be compared against companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for a Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories company?
A good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share depends on the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry context. However, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share mean?
A high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on Fossil Group and its competitors. Fossil Group's current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is $1.10. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Fossil Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fossil Group (FOSL) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $1.18, compared to a current price of $4.29 — trading 263.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is $1.10. Fossil Group's overall GF Score™ is 48/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share calculated?
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Fossil Group (FOSL), the current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is $1.10 as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Fossil Group (FOSL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fossil Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $4.29 is trading 263.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $1.18.
GuruFocus considers Fossil Group to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for FOSL:
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share: $1.10
GF Value™: $1.18 vs. price of $4.29 (263.1% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FOSL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Fossil Group Inc is a design, innovation, and distribution company in consumer fashion accessories, offering products such as watches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It designs, develops, markets, and distributes products under its owned brands FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC. It operates through Americas, Europe, and Asia segments, each including sales to wholesale and distributor customers, as well as Company-owned retail stores and e-commerce activities based on the location of the selling entity. The Americas segment contributes the majority of revenue and includes sales across Canada, Latin America, and the United States, while the Europe and Asia segments cover their respective regions. Each segment provides similar products and services.
48GF Score
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