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Fossil GroupFOSL +3.40%47 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $-10.50 as of Aug. 04, 2026. GuruFocus rates FOSL with a GF Score™ of 47/100 and a GF Value™ of $1.17 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 106 Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories companies, Fossil Group ranks worse than 943395.28% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Fossil Group's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The historical rank and industry rank for Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Fossil Group was 0.35. The lowest was 0.27. And the median was 0.31.
FOSL's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry.
Industry Median: 0.895 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.
Fossil Group (NAS:FOSL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart
For the Footwear & Accessories subindustry, Fossil Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Fossil Group Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) vs Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories Industry
For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Fossil Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Fossil Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.62%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Fossil Group's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
3 years was -10.20%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $-0.910. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $-10.50 mean?
Fossil Group (FOSL) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $-10.50 as of Aug. 04, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Fossil Group and its competitors. Over the past decade, Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 0.27 to 0.35. According to the industry distribution chart, Fossil Group ranks #999999 out of 106 companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry.
Is Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) too high?
Fossil Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $-10.50. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.27 to a high of 0.35. Based on the distribution chart, Fossil Group ranks #999999 out of 106 companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Fossil Group has a GF Score™ of 47/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) compare to DBI and FWDI?
According to the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry distribution chart, Fossil Group ranks #999999 out of 106 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based). This places Fossil Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.90. Historically, Fossil Group's own Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 0.27 to 0.35 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for a Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) among Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories companies is 0.90, based on 106 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Fossil Group and its competitors. For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.90 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Fossil Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $-10.50. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Fossil Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fossil Group (FOSL) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $1.17, compared to a current price of $6.09 — trading 420.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $-10.50. Fossil Group's overall GF Score™ is 47/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Fossil Group (FOSL), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $-10.50 as of Aug. 04, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Fossil Group (FOSL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fossil Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $6.09 is trading 420.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of $1.17.
GuruFocus considers Fossil Group to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for FOSL:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): $-10.50
GF Value™: $1.17 vs. price of $6.09 (420.5% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FOSL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Fossil Group Inc is a design, innovation, and distribution company in consumer fashion accessories, offering products such as watches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It designs, develops, markets, and distributes products under its owned brands FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC. It operates through Americas, Europe, and Asia segments, each including sales to wholesale and distributor customers, as well as Company-owned retail stores and e-commerce activities based on the location of the selling entity. The Americas segment contributes the majority of revenue and includes sales across Canada, Latin America, and the United States, while the Europe and Asia segments cover their respective regions. Each segment provides similar products and services.
47GF Score
Get the complete analysis for FOSL
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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