Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Fossil GroupFOSL -4.35%47 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.29 as of Aug. 19, 2026, which is 21% above its 10-year median of 0.24. GuruFocus rates FOSL with a GF Score™ of 47/100 and a GF Value™ of $1.20 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 769 Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories companies, Fossil Group ranks worse than 98.05% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-08-19), Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.29. The stock price of Fossil Group is $5.505. Therefore, Fossil Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 19.0.
The historical rank and industry rank for Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
FOSL'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.09 Med: 0.24 Max: 19.83
Current: 18.98
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Fossil Group was 19.83. The lowest was 0.09. And the median was 0.24.
FOSL's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 98.05% of 769
companies
in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry
Industry Median: 0.8
vs FOSL: 18.98
Fossil Group (NAS:FOSL) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Fossil Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
5.505
/
0.286089573423
=
19.24
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
FOSL vs DBI, FWDI, RCKY: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Footwear & Accessories subindustry, Fossil Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Fossil Group Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories Industry
For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Fossil Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Fossil Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.29 mean?
Fossil Group (FOSL) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.29 as of Aug. 19, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Fossil Group and its competitors. This is 21% above median its historical median of 0.24. Over the past decade, Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.09 to 19.83. According to the industry distribution chart, Fossil Group ranks #754 out of 769 companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, placing it in the top 98%.
Is Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Fossil Group's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.29 is 21% above median its 10-year median of 0.24. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.09 to a high of 19.83. The Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.80. Fossil Group's value of $0.29 is 63.8% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Fossil Group ranks #754 out of 769 companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Fossil Group has a GF Score™ of 47/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to DBI and FWDI?
According to the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry distribution chart, Fossil Group ranks #754 out of 769 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Fossil Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.80. Fossil Group's value of $0.29 is 63.8% below this benchmark. Historically, Fossil Group's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.09 to 19.83 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 0.24 vs. the industry median of 0.80, Fossil Group has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories companies is 0.80, based on 769 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Fossil Group's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $0.29 is 63.8% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Fossil Group and its competitors. For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.80 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Fossil Group's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.29, which is 21% above median its own 10-year median of 0.24. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Fossil Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fossil Group (FOSL) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $1.20, compared to a current price of $5.51 — trading 358.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.29, which is 21% above median its 10-year median of 0.24 and 63.8% below the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry median of 0.80. Fossil Group's overall GF Score™ is 47/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Fossil Group (FOSL), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.29 as of Aug. 19, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Fossil Group (FOSL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fossil Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $5.51 is trading 358.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $1.20.
GuruFocus considers Fossil Group to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for FOSL:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $0.29 (21% above median its 10-year median of 0.24)
GF Value™: $1.20 vs. price of $5.51 (358.8% above fair value)
Industry Position: 63.8% below the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories median (#754 of 769)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FOSL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Fossil Group Inc is a design, innovation, and distribution company in consumer fashion accessories, offering products such as watches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It designs, develops, markets, and distributes products under its owned brands FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC. It operates through Americas, Europe, and Asia segments, each including sales to wholesale and distributor customers, as well as Company-owned retail stores and e-commerce activities based on the location of the selling entity. The Americas segment contributes the majority of revenue and includes sales across Canada, Latin America, and the United States, while the Europe and Asia segments cover their respective regions. Each segment provides similar products and services.
47GF Score
Get the complete analysis for FOSL
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
FOSL has been successfully added to your 
