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Fossil GroupFOSL -0.90%47 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.00% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus rates FOSL with a GF Score™ of 47/100 and a GF Value™ of $1.17 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 817 Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories companies, Fossil Group ranks better than 98.16% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Fossil Group's forward rate of return for was 0.00%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Fossil Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
FOSL'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 12.25 Med: 18.69 Max: 101.74
Current: 101.74
During the past 13 years, Fossil Group's highest Forward Rate of Return was 101.74. The lowest was 12.25. And the median was 18.69.
FOSL's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 98.16% of 817
companies
in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry
Industry Median: 5.26
vs FOSL: 101.74
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Fossil Group (NAS:FOSL) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Fossil Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Fossil Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Fossil Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Fossil Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
FOSL vs DBI, FWDI, RCKY: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Footwear & Accessories subindustry, Fossil Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Fossil Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories Industry
For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Fossil Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Fossil Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Fossil Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
Fossil Group's Forward Rate of Return of Mar. 2026 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
4.90685714
/
4.31
+
-0.0991
=
103.94 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 0.00% mean?
Fossil Group (FOSL) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 0.00% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Fossil Group and its competitors. Over the past decade, Fossil Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 12.25 to 101.74. According to the industry distribution chart, Fossil Group ranks #15 out of 817 companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, placing it in the top 1.8%.
Is Fossil Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Fossil Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.00%. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 12.25 to a high of 101.74. Based on the distribution chart, Fossil Group ranks #15 out of 817 companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Fossil Group has a GF Score™ of 47/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Fossil Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to DBI and FWDI?
According to the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry distribution chart, Fossil Group ranks #15 out of 817 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Fossil Group in the top 2% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 5.26. Historically, Fossil Group's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 12.25 to 101.74 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories companies is 5.26, based on 817 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Fossil Group and its competitors. For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 5.26 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Fossil Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.00%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Fossil Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fossil Group (FOSL) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $1.17, compared to a current price of $4.40 — trading 275.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.00%. Fossil Group's overall GF Score™ is 47/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Fossil Group (FOSL), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 0.00% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Fossil Group (FOSL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fossil Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $4.40 is trading 275.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of $1.17.
GuruFocus considers Fossil Group to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for FOSL:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 0.00%
GF Value™: $1.17 vs. price of $4.40 (275.6% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FOSL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Fossil Group Inc is a design, innovation, and distribution company in consumer fashion accessories, offering products such as watches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It designs, develops, markets, and distributes products under its owned brands FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC. It operates through Americas, Europe, and Asia segments, each including sales to wholesale and distributor customers, as well as Company-owned retail stores and e-commerce activities based on the location of the selling entity. The Americas segment contributes the majority of revenue and includes sales across Canada, Latin America, and the United States, while the Europe and Asia segments cover their respective regions. Each segment provides similar products and services.
47GF Score
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