Medibank Pvt (ASX:MPL) Beneish M-Score: -2.11 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


ASX:MPL Medibank Pvt Ltd ASX:MPL
77 GF Score
Price A$4.99
GF Value A$4.38
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is Medibank Pvt Beneish M-Score?

Medibank Pvt ASX:MPL +2.67% 77 Beneish M-Score is -2.11 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates ASX:MPL with a GF Score™ of 77/100 and a GF Value™ of A$4.38 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 397 Insurance companies, Medibank Pvt ranks worse than 79.85% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.11 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Medibank Pvt's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ASX:MPL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.11   Med: -2.11   Max: -2.11
Current: -2.11

During the past 11 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Medibank Pvt was -2.11. The lowest was -2.11. And the median was -2.11.

ASX:MPL
77GF Score
Medibank Pvt Ltd ASX:MPL
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Medibank Pvt Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Medibank Pvt for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.5773+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0025+0.892 * 1.0658+0.115 * 0.918
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0678+4.679 * -0.045699-0.327 * 0.9515
=-2.11

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun25) TTM:Last Year (Jun24) TTM:
Total Receivables was A$66 Mil.
Revenue was A$8,546 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$8,546 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$0 Mil.
Total Assets was A$4,700 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$194 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$96 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$1,055 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$145 Mil.
Net Income was A$501 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$335 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was A$381 Mil.
 Total Receivables was A$40 Mil.
Revenue was A$8,018 Mil.
Gross Profit was A$8,018 Mil.
Total Current Assets was A$0 Mil.
Total Assets was A$4,685 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was A$205 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was A$89 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was A$927 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was A$0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was A$152 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(66.4 / 8546) / (39.5 / 8018.3)
=0.00777 / 0.004926
=1.5773

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(8018.3 / 8018.3) / (8546 / 8546)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 194.2) / 4700.3) / (1 - (0 + 205) / 4685.4)
=0.958683 / 0.956247
=1.0025

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=8546 / 8018.3
=1.0658

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(89.4 / (89.4 + 205)) / (96 / (96 + 194.2))
=0.303668 / 0.330806
=0.918

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1054.8 / 8546) / (926.8 / 8018.3)
=0.123426 / 0.115586
=1.0678

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((144.8 + 0) / 4700.3) / ((151.7 + 0) / 4685.4)
=0.030807 / 0.032377
=0.9515

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(500.8 - 334.7 - 380.9) / 4700.3
=-0.045699

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Medibank Pvt has a M-score of -2.11 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.11 mean?
Medibank Pvt (ASX:MPL) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.11 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Medibank Pvt and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Medibank Pvt ranks #317 out of 397 companies in the Insurance industry, placing it in the top 79.8%.
Is Medibank Pvt's Beneish M-Score too high?
Medibank Pvt's current Beneish M-Score is -2.11. Based on the distribution chart, Medibank Pvt ranks #317 out of 397 companies in the Insurance industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Medibank Pvt has a GF Score™ of 77/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Medibank Pvt's Beneish M-Score compare to FNF and AXS?
According to the Insurance industry distribution chart, Medibank Pvt ranks #317 out of 397 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Medibank Pvt in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Insurance company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Insurance industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Medibank Pvt and its competitors. Medibank Pvt's current Beneish M-Score is -2.11. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Medibank Pvt stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Medibank Pvt (ASX:MPL) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$4.38, compared to a current price of A$4.99 — trading 13.9% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.11. Medibank Pvt's overall GF Score™ is 77/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Medibank Pvt (ASX:MPL), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.11 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Medibank Pvt (ASX:MPL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Medibank Pvt stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of A$4.99 is trading 13.9% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$4.38. GuruFocus considers Medibank Pvt to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ASX:MPL:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.11
  • GF Value™: A$4.38 vs. price of A$4.99 (13.9% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 77/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:MPL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Medibank Pvt Business Description

Other Exchanges MDBPF:USAMDBKY:USA
Address 695 Collins Street, Medibank Melbourne Hub, Level 2, Docklands, Melbourne, VIC, AUS, 3008
Previously owned by the Australian government, Medibank is the largest health insurer in Australia. Its two brands, Medibank Private and Ahm, cover around 5 million people. Medibank and Australia's fourth-largest health fund, NIB Holdings, are the only listed health insurers. In addition to private health insurance, the firm provides life, pet, and travel insurance, as well as health insurance for overseas students and temporary overseas workers. The Medibank Health division provides healthcare services to businesses, governments, and communities across Australia and New Zealand.
77GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ASX:MPL

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$4.99
Price
A$4.38
GF Value