Cheer Holding (Cheer Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Cheer Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cheer Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cheer Holding (Cheer Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Cheer Holding Inc (NAS:CHR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 8 Tuofangying South Road, 22nd Floor, Block B, Xinhua Technology Building, Jiuxianqiao, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100016

Website

http://ir.gsmg.co

Cheer Holding Inc is a provider of next generation mobile internet infrastructure and platform services in China. It is engaged in building a digital ecosystem that integrates platforms, applications, technology, and industry into a cohesive system, thereby creating a new, open business environment that leverages AI technology. Its portfolio includes various products and services, such as Polaris Intelligent Cloud, CHEERS Telepathy, CHEERS Open Platform, CHEERS Video, CHEERS e-Mall, CheerReal, CheerCar, CheerChat, CHEERS Fresh Group-Buying E-commerce Platform, Digital Innovation Research Institute, CHEERS Livestreaming, variety show series, IP short video matrix, and more.

Executives

Jia Lu	director, 10 percent owner	22F, BLOCK B, XINHUA TECHNOLOGY TOWER, TUOFANGYING SOUTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100022
Ran Zhang	director	22F, BLOCK B, XINHUA TECHNOLOGY TOWER, TUOFANGYING SOUTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100022
Bing Zhang	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	22F, BLOCK B, XINHUA TECH TOWER, TUOFANGYING SOUTH ROAD, JIUXIAMQIAO, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100022
Shu Ming Leung	director	22/F, BLOCK B, XINHUA TECHNOLOGY, NO. 8 TUOFANGYING ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100022
Yong Li	director	22/F, BLOCK B, XINHUA TECHNOLOGY, NO. 8 TUOFANGYING ROAD, CHAOYING DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100022
Giant Fortune International Ltd	10 percent owner	510 KINGS ROAD, 10TH ISLAND PLACE TOWER, HONG KONG F4 999077
Sing Wang	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	SUITE 1003-1004, 10/F, ICBC TOWER, THREE GARDEN ROAD, CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 00000
Ian Lee	director, officer: CFO	UNIT 1631 LEVEL 16 MAN YEE BLDG, 60-68 DES VOEUX ROAD CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 518000
Ng Joanne Sin Ting	officer: Sr Dir of Business Development	UNIT 1631 LEVEL 16 MAN YEE BLDG, 60-68 DES VOEUX ROAD CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 518000
Symphony Sponsor 1 Tkk	10 percent owner	UNIT 1631, LEVEL 16, MAN YEE BUILDING, 6068 DES VOEUX ROAD CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 518000
Stephen Markscheid	director	C/O ENER-CORE, INC., 9400 TOLEDO WAY, IRVINE CA 92618
Zhe Zhang	director	UNIT 1631 LEVEL 16 MAN YEE BLDG, 60-68 DES VOEUX RD CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 518000
James Heimowitz	director	UNIT 1631 LEVEL 16 MAN YEE BLDG, 60-68 VOEUX ROAD CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 518000
Ronald Issen	officer: Chief Investment Officer	UNIT 1631 LEVEL 16 MAN YEE BLDG, 60-68 DES VOEUX ROAD CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 518000