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CNAF (Commercial National Financial (PA)) Predictability Rank


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What is Commercial National Financial (PA) Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Commercial National Financial (PA) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Commercial National Financial (PA) Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Commercial National Financial (PA)'s Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Commercial National Financial (PA) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Commercial National Financial Corp (PA) (OTCPK:CNAF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FCCT AMFC GTPS SSBP HRBK PFSB APLO WVFC KFFB LOGN NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 MIL:UCG SGX:D05 XPAR:BNP MIL:ISP NSE:SBIN ISX:BBCA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
900 Ligonier Street, PO Box 429, Latrobe, PA, USA, 15650
Website
https://www.cnbthebankonline.com
Commercial National Financial Corp (PA) is a bank holding company. The bank's primary business includes taking deposits and granting loans to customers in the area of Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania. The bank offers a full range of banking services including extending credit, providing deposit services, marketing non-deposit investments and offering financial counseling. It provides traditional banking and related financial services to individual, business and government customers which include time, savings and demand deposits, the making of commercial, consumer and mortgage loans, and other financial services.
Executives
John T Babilya director ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC, 533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DR, ST LOUIS MO 63141
George V Welty director, officer: Non-Executive Chairman ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC, 533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DR, ST LOUIS MO 63141
Steven H Landers director PO BOX 429, 900 LIGONIER STREET, LATROBE PA 15650
Elaine Rose Bohatch officer: VP/Chief Investmt Ofc/Trust 900 LIGONIER STREET, PO BOX 429, LATROBE PA 15650
Roy Dale Landers director 900 LIGONIER STREET, PO BOX 429, LATROBE PA 15650
Bruce A Robinson director 900 LIGONIER STREET, PO BOX 429, LATROBE PA 15650
C Edward Wible director ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC, 533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DR, ST LOUIS MO 63141
Debra L Spatola director ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC, 533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DR, ST LOUIS MO 63141
Kelly R Moreman officer: Exec VP/Mgr Risk Mgmnt PO BOX 429, LATROBE PA 15650
Cheryl M. Letterio officer: Sr Vice President/Cmplnce Ofcr 900 LIGONIER STREET, PO BOX 429, LATROBE PA 15650
Frank E Jobe director ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC, 533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DR, ST LOUIS MO 63141
Dorothy S Hunter director, 10 percent owner P O BOX 429, LATROBE PA 15650
Gregg E Hunter director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice Chairman/President & CEO ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC, 533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DR, ST LOUIS MO 63141
Michael A Schmidt officer: Executive Vice President/COO PO BOX 429, LATROBE PA 15650
Hunter Stock Trust director 900 LIGONIER STREET, PO BOX 429, LATROBE PA 15650